862
FXUS66 KLOX 310315
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
815 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...30/727 PM.

Very little change expected in most areas Friday through the
weekend, except for increasing low clouds and fog along the
Central Coast, and cooler temperatures there. Temperatures will
remain below normal for the coast and valleys through the weekend
while inland temperatures will cool to near normal. A warming
trend is expected next week, especially for interior areas
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...30/814 PM.

***UPDATE***

Gusty onshore winds are affecting some interior sections this
afternoon, as onshore pressure gradients remain strong. Gusts of
30 to 45 mph are affecting much of the Antelope Valley, with
weaker gusts over the mountains, including the Santa Monicas, and
the interior passes and canyons. Otherwise, the main forecast
issue tonight will be low clouds spreading northward along the
Central Coast, with potential for low ceilings and lower
visibility fog. This will lead to cooler temperatures for the
Central Coast tomorrow, and potential for slightly warmer
temperatures over inland portions of San Luis and Santa Barbara
Counties. Otherwise little change in temperatures and sky cover
for the remainder of the forecast area.

***From Previous Discussion***

At upper levels a weak trough will pass through the area later
Saturday into Sunday causing interior areas too cool a few degrees
with some breezy afternoon winds. The marine layer will push
slightly farther inland the next few days and take longer to clear
off.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/220 PM.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to set up shop next
week along the West Coast all the way up into southern Canada.
This will bring a warming trend to the area, but with the focus
being interior areas that are far removed from the cooling
effects of the still chilly Pacific Ocean. Monday won`t be much
different from the weekend weather conditions, however starting
Tuesday and going through at least Thursday temperatures will be
on the rise, especially inland. Onshore flow, while still quite
strong during the afternoon, will dip slightly Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings which should be enough to bring at least a
couple degrees of warming to coastal areas as well as earlier
marine layer clearing. Valleys and other interior areas will warm
up 3-6 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday, bring warmer valley
highs close to 90 and the Antelope Valley around 100 or slightly
higher by Wednesday. While these are the most likely high
temperatures, there is still a 20% chance of highs close to 105
in the Antelope Valley and up to 95 in the warmest coastal
valleys, pending how the upper level pattern evolves and how that
impacts the strength of the onshore flow. Meanwhile, coastal
areas are expected to top out in the upper 60s and 70s with some
beaches still mired in marine layer stratus.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0018Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5100 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in the desert TAFs and KPRB, low confidence in
KSMX and KSBP and moderate confidence for the remaining sites. For
the Central Coast sites, there is a 30-40 percent chance that no
low clouds occur. Also, the timing of onset of low clouds is lower
certainty. As for the other coastal and valley sites, the return
of cigs may be off by +/-2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. The timing of CIGs
return could differ by up to 2 hours from TAF time. There is a 30
percent chance that conds remain MVFR through the overnight
period. No significant east wind expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a chance that CIGS
arrival could be delayed up to 3 hours from TAF time of 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/809 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

In the outer waters, winds and seas are near Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels but are generally trending downwards. Winds and seas
are likely (70% chance) to be below SCA level by late tonight.
There is 30% chance of SCA level winds Friday and Friday night in
the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). Then, SCA level winds/seas
are likely (70-80% chance) much of the time Saturday through
Monday.

In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, Conditions are near SCA levels,
but will continue to subside through the night so allowed the
advisory to expire. Conds will remain below SCA levels through
Saturday morning. Then, SCA level winds are likely (50-70%
chance) during the afternoon/evening hours Saturday through
Tuesday.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
winds in western portion of the SBA Channel in the
afternoon/evening hours Saturday through Monday. Otherwise, SCA
conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Smith
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox