Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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201 FXUS63 KLSX 312338 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 638 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will overspread the area tonight lasting into Saturday morning with potential for a little embedded thunder. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms will then impact the area Saturday afternoon and early evening. - A short period of largely dry weather will prevail from late Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday afternoon continuing through the middle of next week. - After a day of cooler weather and below normal temperatures on Saturday, we rebound to above normal temperatures and heat more typical of summer starting Sunday lasting into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A broad mid-upper trof with embedded vort maxes and currently centered through eastern KS will move eastward into MO tonight, with the axis moving east of the CWA by early Saturday evening. These vort maxes along with an evolving and strengthening warm conveyor belt featuring a veering S-SE LLJ will modulate precipitation coverage and intensity over the next 36 hours. Precipitation has been slow to evolve initially but as we head into the evening the combination of the increasing LLJ, attendant moisture transport and convergence along with larger scale forcing should lead to widespread showers spreading and developing northward through central and eastern MO, then shifting east/northeast into the overnight hours. There is not much in the way of instability forecast with the precipitation tonight, but the appearance of negative showalter indices late evening and overnight attendant with some mid-level cooling and better low- level forcing would suggest a threat of some embedded elevated thunderstorms overnight into mid-Saturday morning, especially towards the backside of the overall precipitation shield. The moisture transport will lead to PWs increasing to 1.5+ inches during this time frame and given this moisture increase, slow cell motions, and some potential for cell training we could see some localized corridors of heavier rainfall within an SSW-NNE zone extending from between STL-COU into west-central IL. Both the PPM and LPPM guidance from the HREF support this idea with pockets of 1.5-3.0 inches of rainfall. Unless this falls in an hour or so or the amounts are higher, which would probably necessitate more convection, then the overall flood threat appears low at this time. The main thrust of more continuous precipitation/greater coverage of showers should move east of the CWA by 18z or so on Saturday as the mean mid-upper trof axis progresses east. However diurnal destabilization in the wake of the axis passage (afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500+), and weak surface convergence attendant with the surface trof that is attendant with the upper system, will fuel the development of additional isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern MO and SW IL into early evening along/ahead of the advancing surface trof/convergence axis. The aforementioned storms would pose a threat of heavy downpours and lightning. All indications are any ongoing showers and storms should dissipate rather quickly over SW IL on Saturday evening with loss of heating/instability, and the remainder of Saturday night should be dry and tranquil. Glass && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Quasi-zonal mid-upper level flow will develop Saturday night into early next week. This regime will initially feature lower- amplitude disturbances through Sunday night, with more prominent short-waves centered thru the mid-upper MS Valley traversing the region Monday-Tuesday. These disturbances along with plentiful instability will bring prolonged thunderstorm chances to the region, first returning late Sunday afternoon in the western CWA. All day rains don`t appear likely, and despite the prolonged precipitation chances, there will be plenty of dry time. Depending on the timing of the waves and amount of deep layer shear present, this potential could include organized multicell strong storms in the afternoon/evening. Also attendant with the quasi- zonal regime will be the return of largely south-southwest low level flow and WAA, resulting in a warmer weather and above normal temperatures somewhat typical of June/early Summer. Longer range guidance strongly suggests a significant pattern change will take place starting late Tuesday and progressing through the end of next week featuring a deepening northern stream upper trof sliding into the eastern CONUS. This trof is eventually forecast to be the dominant steering feature for the MS Valley eastward. While there is generally a consensus in this change and the development of NW flow aloft, there are substantial differences with the ensemble systems evident in the LREF cluster analysis regarding the details of the depth and position of the trof and the magnitude of heights aloft. The initial short wave trof starting the pattern change will drive a cold front through the area, most likely in the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning time frame. An earlier cold fropa would possibly bring a potential for stronger storms due to greater instability. The differences in the pattern details and heights aloft lead to lower confidence in temperatures beyond Wednesday with the LREF IQR for highs on Thursday on the order of 15 degrees ranging from the low-mid 70s to upper 80s. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A slow moving weather system is pushing rain into the area from the south-southwest over the local terminals, with those terminals not currently experiencing rain expected to see impacts over the next few hours. The rain is expected to be light, producing only minor impacts to visibility. There is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms embedded within the area of rain, and if these make direct impact to local terminals, visibilities could drop lower than currently indicated. However, confidence in direct impacts is low enough to continue leaving mention of them out of the TAFs for now. Low stratus will also accompany this weather system, with ceilings gradually dropping overnight. IFR flight conditions are expected at all local terminals late tonight and early tomorrow morning, and conditions will be slow to improve during the day tomorrow. Additional showers and possibly some thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours Saturday, but their scattered nature keeps confidence low enough to leave mention of them to VCSH for now. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX