288
FXUS64 KLUB 240546
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1246 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The main concern for today remains the threat of possibly severe
thunderstorms across the far southeastern Panhandle and eastern
Rolling Plains. The dryline continues to track eastward across the
forecast area and is currently along the I-27/US-87 corridor.
Current high-res guidance is not as aggressive with storm development
as earlier runs from this morning. Nonetheless, with clearing skies,
higher CAPE values will be present over the aforementioned area and
along with subtle shortwaves propagating aloft is enough to merit at
least a slight chance of isolated severe weather, with large hail
being the primary threat. Any storms that do develop should quickly
end by mid-evening as the dryline departs to the east.

Fire weather concerns remain into the evening as well. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect until 9 PM for the far southwestern Panhandle
and western Rolling Plains. Humidities in these areas have already
fallen into the single digits and winds will gradually increase
through the afternoon. Highs will top out in the low-to-mid 90s.
Winds will switch to generally out of the north across the region
Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Although the front
will not bring any precipitation, it will at least bring high
temperatures down around 5-10 degrees from that of today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The theme for the extended will be hot, dry and breezy through the
weekend ahead of the return of precipitation chances by the middle
of next week. A broad trough axis will bring a 60-70 knot jet streak
over the forecast area Saturday with deepening surface lee
cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado. Downsloping southwesterly
surface flow with hot temperatures and dry conditions, as the
dryline will be east of the Rolling Plains, will give way to steep
lapse and deep boundary layer mixing up to 700mb. Combined with the
strengthening surface low and increase in pressure gradient, breezy
20 to 30 mph winds are expected through the afternoon hours. This in
turn will give way to the potential for critical fire weather
concerns west of the I-27 corridor and elevated concerns elsewhere.
Heading into Sunday, another upper low will quickly follow in behind
the previous wave and move into the Northern Plains with westerly
flow aloft. As a result, another lee cyclone will develop across
northeast New Mexico. Continued hot and dry conditions will persist
with breezy west surface winds. Thus, elevated fire weather concerns
are possible across the forecast area with near critical concerns
across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and western South
Plains. As the upper low moves farther east, the surface high will
push south into the Central Plains with a cold front to pass
through the area by early Monday morning. Given the weak and
shallow nature of the frontal boundary, temperatures will still
warm to near or slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower
90s, despite northeasterly post frontal surface winds.

Heading into the middle of next week, the upper ridge will traverse
the western CONUS into the central CONUS. Several disturbances
embedded into the northwesterly flow aloft will give way to the
potential for showers and thunderstorms to return to the area,
especially with an increase in low level moisture due to upslope
surface flow. In spite of the weak ridge aloft, temperatures will
remain slightly cooler but near normal towards the middle of next
week due to these southeast surface winds. Model solutions
towards the end of the week begin to deviate and depending on the
setup, the forecast may favor another cold front, more
precipitation and cooler temperatures looking into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the period, with the exception of KCDS were unexpected MVFR CIGS
have developed off of an outflow boundary. Uncertainty remains on
the duration of low cloud cover, especially with the passing
FROPA. Regardless, low-clouds are expected to clear out of the
terminal just before day-break. Winds will then shift out of the
north Friday morning as a cold front tracks through with winds
becoming breezy out of the north around 20 knots.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the for the far
southwestern Panhandle and western Rolling Plains until 9 PM this
evening. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidities in the
single digits are expected. RFTI values have increased in and around
the Friona area and will increase farther south through the
afternoon. A cold front will move through the area early Friday
morning, with surface winds switching to generally out of the north.
Although these will be around the same magnitude as today`s winds,
humidity and RFTI values will be lower and overall fire concerns
will be much less.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...12