373
FXUS64 KLUB 212325
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Warm and dry conditions will persist for the remainder of today with
breezy westerly winds. Highs will be cooler than yesterday, however
should still top out in the low 90s. A surface cold front will track
across the region around sunrise Wednesday morning. Weak forcing
associated with upper shortwaves propagating through the broader
longwave trough as well as a subtle low-level jet will be enough to
constitute at least slight chances of showers and thunderstorms for
the southeastern Rolling Plains. Some high-res models indicate
SBCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg. While that may be a bit overdone, the
relatively  higher instability combined with favorable mid-level
lapse rates would suggest large hail being the main threat should
any storms become severe. Nonetheless, much of the area looks to
remain quiet in the stable airmass behind the front. This will brief
a brief reprieve from the warmer temperatures, with much cooler
highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Wednesday night, the stalled cold front will lift northward giving
way to the return of southerly surface flow. Increased low level
moisture overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning will give way to
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Upslope moist ascent will give way
to moistening in the low levels paired with warm 850mb temperatures
and a decent capping inversion. A few showers and elevated
thunderstorms are possible with small hail as the main threat. A lee
low will develop in eastern Colorado as the upper low swings across
the Northern Rockies. The dryline will mix eastward and sharpen
through the afternoon hours Thursday. Most models mix the dryline
east of the Rolling Plains; however, the NAM continues to keep the
dryline stretched along a line near the Caprock Escarpment. Given
majority of model consensus, the current forecast maintains the NBM
PoPs which keeps all but a sliver of slight chance thunderstorms
across the far eastern Rolling Plains. Ample instability east of the
dryline will give way to the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours
across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Storms will intensify
quickly and storm motion will be to the northeast at a quick clip.
Therefore, if the NAMs setup of the dryline comes to fruition, any
storm that develops across the Rolling Plains will be fast to move
out of the forecast area. However, prior to leaving the area any
storm that does develop could be capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Thursday`s storm potential heavily relies on
how far east the dryline mixes. West of the dryline, conditions will
be very dry and low end breezy with the return of elevated fire
weather concerns.

A weak cold front will swing south across the forecast area Friday
morning and stall across the Permian Basin. Depending on the exact
placement of the stalled front, temperatures may range 5 to 10
degrees from north to south across the area. A shortwave trough will
swing across Saturday with a lee low developing across southeast
Colorado. The dryline will setup farther east with hot, dry and
breezy conditions. In the wake of the shortwave will be another
upper low across the Northern Plains with mostly westerly flow
aloft. This will give way to another lee low developing across
eastern Colorado. Once again the dryline will be displaced farther
east with downsloping westerly surface winds giving way to continued
hot, dry and breezy conditions. A weak cold front Monday will give
way to slightly cooler, but still near normal temperatures in the
80s. In addition to the hot and dry conditions, elevated fire
weather concerns will be possible through the weekend across the
western South Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Winds should quickly diminish within the next hour or two as we
near sunset. A strong cold front will move through the region in
the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday roughly around the 09-12Z time
frame. Winds will shift to the north-northeast and become strong
with speeds around 20-25kt. Low CIGS may fill in behind the front
but it is highly uncertain on whether this will occur during the
daytime. The best chances of these low CIGS will be at KCDS. Winds
will begin to diminish late in the morning into the early
afternoon hours and shift more to the east-northeast.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...01