819
FXUS64 KLUB 040536
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Throughout the early afternoon, a dryline has been mixing eastward
into the Rolling Plains and the southern Texas Panhandle. East of
this boundary, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s support an
unstable environment. A 500mb shortwave is currently propagating
east across the forecast area and is expected to be positioned to
the east of the CWA by evening. Resulting subsidence in the mid-
levels presents an obstacle to thunderstorm initiation along the
dryline. However, enhanced lift from the surface trough and a bulge
in the dryline may still allow for a storm or two to form this
evening. Additionally, an outflow boundary from an MCS this morning
in Oklahoma extends southeast from Childress to Wichita Falls. The
best potential for thunderstorms to develop exists where this
boundary intersects with the dryline. With upwards of 3000 J/kg
SBCAPE and 45kt of effective 0-6km shear, storms that form will
likely be supercells capable of large hail up to tennis ball size
and strong winds up to 70 mph. If a supercell interacts with the
outflow boundary, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Later this
evening, the storm threat will decrease as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Moisture will return overnight as the dryline retreats
west, keeping low temperatures mild across the Rolling Plains and
the far southeast Texas Panhandle. Low clouds and patchy fog are
possible across the far southeast Texas Panhandle tomorrow morning
due to moisture recovery overnight.

Tomorrow, 500mb heights are expected to rise as an upper-level ridge
builds across the Great Basin. Combined with westerly downslope
winds at the surface, this should yield high temperatures in the
upper 90s and low 100s across the area. A weak front approaching the
forecast area from the north may cause winds to shift during the
afternoon, but unfortunately no relief from the heat. The northerly
winds behind the weak front would allow some moisture to return to
the southeastern Texas Panhandle, potentially providing a more
favorable environment for thunderstorms. More details on the storm
threat can be found in the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level ridging will begin to creep into the region from the
west Tuesday afternoon where it is expected to remain over the
region through the weekend. This will lead to relatively warm and
quiet weather for the South Plains region through much of the long
term period.

Some ensemble members continue to suggest the chance of
thunderstorms across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle Tuesday
evening. A surface low is expected to be positioned just east of the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon. This in combination with a subtle disturbance in the flow
aloft and increased moisture with dewpoints progged in the 60s could
lead to some isolated thunderstorms. However, confidence in
thunderstorm development remains very low at this point and will
likely remain further east where the surface low is forecasted to
reside. Therefore NBM below mentionable PoPs have been maintained.
A weak cold front is expected to track through the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning where winds will briefly shift out of
the northeast before veering out of the east Wednesday afternoon.
This will lead to temperatures a few degrees cooler than previous
days in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday. Through the rest of the
week into next weekend temperatures are expected to remain above
seasonal norms with 850 mb temperatures ranging from 25C to 30C
suggesting temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

By Thursday and Friday, subtle perturbations in the flow aloft in
addition to the upslope component to the wind may lead to a few
isolated thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain in
eastern New Mexico, where they will track southeastward into the FA.
Through the weekend, the upper level pattern becomes a bit tricky in
regards to the evolution of the upper level ridge and the upper
level low over the Baja Peninsula. Ensemble guidance does continue
to hint at this being our next best chance of widespread
precipitation across the FA. Therefore NBM mentionable PoPs have
been maintained and will continue to be re-evaluated as the weekend
draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Low clouds are approaching CDS and are expected to lower ceilings
to IFR in the next hour. The low clouds will hang right around the
TAF sites with ceilings potentially bouncing in and out of VFR,
MVFR and IFR through the early morning hours. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period at all
three sites. Winds will begin turning to the north northeast by
late this morning and early afternoon with a passing cold front.
Wind speeds are expected remain light 5 to 15 knots even after the
frontal passage.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11