Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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280 FXUS64 KLUB 040914 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 414 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Patchy fog across portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South and Rolling Plains will begin to clear out by mid- morning as the sun rises and temperatures warm. The upper trough will pass over the Plains this afternoon with a shortwave trough over the area. By this evening, northwest flow will persist aloft as the upper ridge builds into the southwest CONUS. Surface cyclogenesis will deepen over the Texas Panhandle this morning with warm downsloping westerly surface winds across much of the forecast area. Thus, temperatures will quickly warm this morning with highs expected to reach the lower triple digits across the southern portions of the South and Rolling Plains. Meanwhile, as the surface low dives south through the afternoon, a shallow cold front will help to keep temperatures across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South and Rolling Plains below triple digits in the mid to upper 90s. Surface winds will turn to the north northeast behind the frontal passage with low level moisture wrapping around the eastern and north sides of the low. Therefore, dewpoints will range in the upper 50s to 60s across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. With hot temperatures and increased low level moisture, along with subtle lift along the frontal passage and passing shortwave aloft, there is a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop this afternoon and early evening across the aforementioned area. Similar to yesterday, the biggest caveat in storms sustaining growth will be the slightly warmer air aloft. However, with warming surface temperatures and the passing frontal boundary this inversion should begin to erode away by the afternoon hours. If a storm or two can develop, MLCAPE supports a buoyant atmosphere with enough bulk shear to support a supercell. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main threats with any storm that develops. Given the highly conditional environment this afternoon, the potential that all factors play out perfectly for storms to initiate remains low. Thus, PoPs of 10 percent were maintained this afternoon to reflect the low likelihood of an isolated storm across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Wednesday is still shaping up to be a few degrees cooler than today as easterly surface flow continues in the wake of the earlier cool front. This will also allow considerably more moisture to persist in the low levels as surface dewpoints remain in the 50s and 60s Wednesday afternoon over most of the region. Even so, storm chances will stay near zero on Wednesday as warm midlevels prevent any meaningful convective development. By Thursday, upper level ridging will be firmly established to our west, although flow aloft is still progged to remain weak through at least Friday. With residual moisture trapped beneath the ridge, a weaker midlevel cap, and convective temperatures likely being reached, the potential for isolated storms will return to at least portions of the region on Thursday and Friday. Given the weak flow aloft, these storms would likely be of the short-lived pulse variety with the highest coverage over the southern TX Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains. The general pattern will trend more active this weekend as a broad upper low deepens over the Great Lakes region resulting in an extended period of northwesterly flow aloft over West Texas. This setup typically favors convection developing over the NM/CO high terrain each afternoon which then propagates southeastward into West Texas during the evening and overnight hours, and will therefore maintain mentionable PoPs over essentially the entire area each evening/night this weekend into early next week. Temperatures also look likely to remain near or above normal through the weekend given the location of the upper ridge axis just to our west. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Low clouds are approaching CDS and are expected to lower ceilings to IFR in the next hour. The low clouds will hang right around the TAF sites with ceilings potentially bouncing in and out of VFR, MVFR and IFR through the early morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period at all three sites. Winds will begin turning to the north northeast by late this morning and early afternoon with a passing cold front. Wind speeds are expected remain light 5 to 15 knots even after the frontal passage. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...11