499
FXUS64 KLZK 290850
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
350 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

High clouds were seen streaming across AR this morning via
infrared satellite imagery. Statewide temperatures were starting
out in the 60s (some protected valley locations had already fallen
into the upper 50s).

Today, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop over much of AR with the passage of an upper level
disturbance. Rain chances should be greatest in the afternoon with
best coverage over W and SW AR. High temperatures should climb into
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

On Thursday, a progressive upper level short wave trough will sweep
across the region. This will promote better chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially into the afternoon and evening. Active
weather is expected to continue into the long term period. High
temperatures on Thursday should be in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Overall the unsettled and progressive pattern is expected to
continue with all medium range guidance in general agreement.
Guidance is showing some timing differences in the individual
features but still support at least some, generally low end, rain
chances through the period.

Period initiates with high pressure over the Great Lakes with some
type of frontal boundary extending from Texas to the Gulf coast. This
boundary lifts to the northeast as a warm front as an upper level
trough swings across the state Friday night and into Saturday.

Several weak waves will move through the prevailing flow which
justifies at least low end POPS within an overall warm and humid
airmass. Best chance of rain with highest QPF may be Sunday
afternoon as a somewhat stronger wave is being depicted by guidance.

Pattern really doesnt alter very much through the period except for
the very end where a ridge tries to build over the west. Placement
of this feature, at the moment, would keep the pattern unsettled
with a series of impulses moving through. With cloud cover and
precipitation chances in place, temperatures will average a few
degrees below average.

Total QPF through the period could be a few inches with the highest
amounts over the southwest part of the state. Widespread severe
weather does not appear likely but there remains an outside chance
for stronger storms Friday over the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid-day to afternoon
SHRA/isolated TSRA are possible across AR on Wed, but this activity
should wind down towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Winds will be light out of the E and SE through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  63  78  63 /  30  30  30  20
Camden AR         84  65  79  65 /  60  60  60  30
Harrison AR       80  59  75  61 /  30  30  30  20
Hot Springs AR    84  64  77  64 /  50  60  50  40
Little Rock   AR  86  66  80  66 /  30  50  50  30
Monticello AR     87  67  80  67 /  40  60  60  30
Mount Ida AR      83  63  76  63 /  50  60  50  40
Mountain Home AR  81  60  77  61 /  20  30  20  20
Newport AR        85  64  80  63 /  30  30  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     87  66  79  66 /  40  60  50  30
Russellville AR   84  64  78  65 /  40  40  40  30
Searcy AR         84  63  79  63 /  20  40  40  30
Stuttgart AR      86  67  78  66 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70