706
FXUS64 KLZK 221102
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term
period as several shortwaves push through the area. Continued
shower/thunderstorms development is expected through the early
morning hours Wednesday. Additionally, strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to pop-up and move out of Oklahoma
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible with these storms.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue into Thursday with
coverage of storms limited as well as the chance for severe
weather on the lower side. With that said, some storms could
still be strong to severe.

CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rainfall. Many locations across the state should
prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least
Thursday night with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will
be the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest
rainfall is expected.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s. with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

An active pattern will continue into the long term period as SW/W
flow continues through the weekend. Multiple upper level
disturbances will move over AR in this flow aloft...with continued
chances for convection nearly each day into Memorial Day.

A more significant upper wave will move over the region Sat into
Sun...with some increased potential for convection and possible SVR
Wx over the weekend. Ample instability is forecast with this system
that a few SVR storms will be possible. However...details on the
overall SVR threat and storm evolution are too uncertain to discuss
details this far out in time as they`ll be highly dependent on
mesoscale features.

Some threat for heavy rainfall will also be seen given several
rounds of rainfall possible. Even so...the exact placement of the
heaviest rainfall is also uncertain at this time to warrant placing
any Flash Flood watches in the long term period.

A larger scale pattern shift looks to develop late in the forecast
as an upper level closed low develops over the Great Lakes Region.
This will send a strong cold front SE through the region by Monday
into Tuesday...bringing cooler and drier air to the state. Chances
for rainfall decrease...with temps dropping back to near or below
normal levels. Dewpts will also drop to more comfortable levels by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Additional SHRA/TSRA moving in from eastern OK affecting all
terminals Thursday morning through the end of this TAF period.
There is some uncertainty regarding coverage of thunderstorms
therefore VCTS/VCSH has been written into TAFs for second round.
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through much of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  66  82  67 /  70  80  70  70
Camden AR         85  67  86  68 /  70  60  30  40
Harrison AR       75  62  80  65 /  70  60  50  60
Hot Springs AR    83  66  85  67 /  80  80  50  60
Little Rock   AR  84  69  85  69 /  70  80  60  70
Monticello AR     87  70  87  70 /  60  60  40  40
Mount Ida AR      83  64  83  66 /  80  80  50  70
Mountain Home AR  78  63  80  65 /  70  70  50  60
Newport AR        83  67  83  68 /  70  70  70  70
Pine Bluff AR     85  69  86  69 /  70  70  50  50
Russellville AR   82  66  84  67 /  80  80  50  70
Searcy AR         83  66  83  67 /  80  70  60  70
Stuttgart AR      85  69  85  70 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...73