045
FXUS64 KLZK 262010
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
310 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Main concern during this forecast period is the severe weather
potential during the first period.

Recent objective analyses indicate an explosive atmospheric
condition prevailing across the forecast area.  Values derived from
18z sounding are supportive of all thunderstorm hazards.

However, a substantial cap exists.  Overall forcing of the
atmospheric column currently is weak.  Recent CAM runs suggest
forcing along cold front, now approaching from eastern Kansas and
central Oklahoma, will be required to initiate convection. In this
scenario, the severe weather potential would exit between 00z and
08z in the LZK forecast warning area. A subjectively analyzed
boundary, likely connectively enhanced from earlier activity in
northeast sections of the forecast area, will be a particularly
dangerous area for severe potential late this afternoon and
evening,

Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the period, although
above normal afternoon temperatures will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The period will begin with surface high pressure building into the
area, resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures. Northerly winds
will gradually become NE and then E as the high slides off to the
east, and eventually a return flow will develop in the Fri-
Sat time frame, bringing warm and moist air back to the state.

In the meantime, several upper level disturbances will ripple thru
the northwesterly flow aloft, bringing chances for precipitation. I
anticipate that a number of nocturnal MCS`s may affect the area,
moving NW-SE thru the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through a good portion of the
period as TSRA/SHRA are expected to move across northern
terminals later tonight. By sunrise tomorrow, showers and
thunderstorms will have pushed out of the state with a break in
the unsettled weather until Sunday afternoon/evening. MVFR/IFR
conditions will be possible with storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  87  64  87 /  30   0   0  10
Camden AR         69  92  65  89 /  40   0  10  10
Harrison AR       63  83  60  83 /  30   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    67  92  65  89 /  20   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  70  91  67  89 /  30   0   0  10
Monticello AR     71  93  67  90 /  50   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      66  91  63  88 /  20   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  64  85  60  85 /  30   0   0  10
Newport AR        69  87  65  88 /  40   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     70  91  66  90 /  50   0   0  10
Russellville AR   66  89  62  88 /  20   0   0  10
Searcy AR         67  89  63  88 /  30   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      71  90  67  89 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...55