643
FXUS64 KLZK 022249 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will remain in place across the region
through the short term portion of the forecast. Sfc analysis
doesn`t indicate much in the way of any distinguishable features
of interest.

Nearly zonal mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
southern US while ridging remains compressed to the southwest. A
series of H500 disturbances will approach the state in the mean
flow over the next couple of days. These impulses as well as any
residual boundaries from MCS activity will help influence the
development of TS activity across the area.

Much of the precip will likely be diurnally driven. Should severe
weather occur, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall
would be the main concerns. Identifying the most likely corridors
of precip remains a challenge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through the first part of the
period. Surface high pressure will be situated just to the east and
southeast of the state as southerly flow supplies moisture into the
state around the high pressure. Aloft, a quasi-zonal pattern is
expected to set up allowing a couple of disturbances to track across
the area. By Thursday morning, the pattern is expected to break down
as a cold front passes through...bringing in high pressure. Calm and
dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday before unsettled
weather returns by the weekend.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize
with any MCS`s...damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF will
depend on where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, many
areas across the state could see one to two inches through Friday
with locally higher amounts possible. Highest QPF amounts are
expected across northern locations.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Convection to the west in OK should move SE this evening...but
additional convection developing to the NE of this line may move
NE to impact NRN terminals this evening. More convection will
redevelop sometime on Mon...with the exact placement and timing
uncertain at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  69  86  69 /  10   0  40  40
Camden AR         90  70  88  71 /  10  20  40  30
Harrison AR       81  66  82  67 /  10  20  60  40
Hot Springs AR    88  70  88  70 /  10  20  40  20
Little Rock   AR  90  72  88  73 /   0  10  40  30
Monticello AR     89  71  89  73 /  10   0  30  20
Mount Ida AR      86  69  86  69 /  10  30  50  20
Mountain Home AR  84  67  83  67 /  10  10  50  40
Newport AR        88  70  88  71 /   0   0  40  40
Pine Bluff AR     89  71  88  72 /  10   0  40  20
Russellville AR   89  71  86  71 /   0  20  50  30
Searcy AR         90  68  87  70 /  10   0  40  40
Stuttgart AR      90  72  88  73 /  20   0  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...62