Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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720 FXUS64 KLZK 010828 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 CURRENTLY: As of 3AM CDT, a weakening MCV continues to track northeastward into northeast Arkansas. Extending southward from the MCV is a line of sub-severe thunderstorms extending across eastern Arkansas that will continue tracking eastward overall. The remaining activity will track from Arkansas into Tennessee and Mississippi during the morning hours on Saturday. TODAY (SATURDAY): A stationary boundary will continue to slowly meander across the northwestern part of the state before becoming a weak cold front and progressing across the state from northwest to southeast. As of 3AM CDT, observations across far western Arkansas are beginning to indicate that the boundary is in place in northwestern Arkansas with sfc obs behind the boundary showing distinct winds out of the north to north-northwest. Expect partly cloudy skies later Saturday afternoon with dry conditions for the entire state after the remnants of the MCV exit the state by midday. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: An approaching upper lvl SWT in tandem with two dynamic systems at the sfc: one which is exiting the region and another that is developing on the leeward side of Rocky Mountain region of the CONUS will bring the opportunity for increased POPs during Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out; however severe weather is not anticipated. Expect increasing isolated rain chances on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures over the short-term period will be near to slightly above average compared to climatological normals for this time of the year. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast/grids were left pretty much in tact this morning as models remain in decent enough agreement keeping the pattern unsettled initially before ridging develops to the west of the CWA. For the timing differences that are being seen, although they are minor, a blend of solutions seems the best course of action. Period initiates with a continuation of the rather muddled upper flow over the area and ongoing rain chances over the northwest part of the state. Precip chances will be spreading across the remainder of the forecast area through the remainder of the day. Rain chances are being generated by yet another short wave trough/possible linear MCS moving across the state with another one on its heels for Monday night into Tuesday. This particular feature look like it will affect northern and possibly central Arkansas more as it pivots off to the northeast early Tuesday. Meanwhile low pressure passing well to the north will drag a cold front through the state Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this boundary as it moves through with upper level ridging starting to build over the four corners region. As the ridge builds, it will place the area in a pronounced northwest flow aloft with, you guessed it, another MCS type feature moving through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will be followed by additional, weaker waves caught up in the prevailing flow and while precipitation chances do decrease with time, they can not be completely removed from all of the CWA at this time. Temperatures will generally be at or above seasonal normals during the day, and slightly milder than average at night due to the increased cloud cover and RH through the majority of the overnight periods. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be impacting the northern, central, and southeastern sites of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ before moving out of the state on Saturday morning. Lowered CIGS will impact all terminals to as low as IFR flight category at times before VFR conditions will prevail from west to east during the day on Saturday. VSBY will be reduced across many sites to as low as IFR flight category at times between patchy fog and pockets of heavy rain/storm activity until Saturday morning after sunrise. A return to overall VFR flight conditions will occur around midday on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 64 87 70 / 20 0 10 10 Camden AR 87 66 89 70 / 10 10 20 10 Harrison AR 80 61 84 67 / 10 0 20 10 Hot Springs AR 87 66 89 70 / 10 10 20 20 Little Rock AR 87 69 89 73 / 10 0 20 10 Monticello AR 86 69 89 72 / 10 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 87 65 88 69 / 10 10 20 20 Mountain Home AR 80 61 85 67 / 20 0 10 10 Newport AR 83 66 88 71 / 30 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 86 68 89 71 / 10 10 20 10 Russellville AR 85 66 88 70 / 10 0 20 20 Searcy AR 84 65 88 70 / 10 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 86 69 88 72 / 20 0 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...74