608
FXUS64 KLZK 310518
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1218 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Fairly quiet across the FA this aftn, but cont to monitor ongoing
convection slowly apchg fm OK and NE TX. A stationary bndry was
situated close to SW AR, where sfc dewpoints were arnd 70. Drier air
was noted further to the NE ovr our FA, with corresponding readings
in the mid/ upper 50s.

Basically, an unsettled weather pattern is in store for the area in
the coming days. Several upper SWT`s are progged to traverse the
area into Sat, resulting in several rounds of convection affecting
the FA thru Sat. Timing and placement of smaller scale boundaries
always tend to lessen fcst confidence is these situations regarding
temps and PoPs.

CAMS cont to show the aforementioned convection working into western
AR this evening, but shows some signs of weakening with loss of
daytime heating. However, additional storms are fcst to impacts OK
and TX later tngt, with some of this activity likely affecting much
of the area heading into Fri. Again, depending on meso-scale
features, there is the potential for some strong/severe storms on
Fri.

Rain chcs wl cont on Sat, with a brief break possible Sat ngt,
but that wl be short-lived to close out the weekend. Heavy
rainfall wl cont to be a concern for localized flash flooding.
However, opted to hold off with any Flood Watches for now, but wl
cont to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

In general west-northwest flow aloft will be in place over the
central CONtinental United States (CONUS) from Saturday night
through Wednesday. In the absence of a powerful upper level trough
or ridge, shortwave troughs will generally provide the perturbations
that cause the geostrophic flow aloft to alternate between pure
westerly and shifts to northwesterly flow aloft. These shifts are
important because they will have a cascading impact on surface
weather conditions east of the Rockies to the Mississippi River.
When the flow aloft is oriented westerly, as the westerly flow moves
from the high terrain of the Rockies to the lower terrain of the
plains, the atmospheric column expanding in depth will cause a
surface trough to develop over the higher plains east of the
Rockies. This is due to the conservation of potential vorticity
which effectively creates surface troughing due to the atmosphere
moving from a compressed to expanded vertical state simply due to
elevation change alone.

With westerly flow aloft causing cyclogenesis over the high plains,
periods of northwest flow aloft will drive weak/Pacific type cold
frontal boundaries southeast, providing synoptic scale lift east of
the surface cyclones or troughs that develop during conditions of
westerly flow aloft. The western troughs will cause south or
southeasterly low-level flow to set up over Arkansas pumping
moisture rich Gulf of Mexico air north across the state. Because
this period exists in early June, the sun angle is just about as
high as it gets over the CONUS leading to extremely efficient
heating each day. The positive moisture flux combined with the
efficient daytime heating will be consistent drivers of thunderstorm
energy across the state Sunday through Wednesday. Every time one
of the pacific type cold fronts interacts with this energetic
airmass, it will kick off a line of thunderstorms that will
continue downstream into the axis of hot and humid air. As a
result, this type of pattern is well known to send multiple linear
mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) across the central CONUS this
time of year. Each linear MCS will bring with it a threat for
damaging winds and at least a marginal threat for hail and quick
spin up tornadoes. Localized flooding is also possible, but
widespread flooding is not common because these types of storm
systems tend to move and don`t sit in one place all that long.

This cycle of linear MCS, reset the atmosphere with southerly winds,
just in time to allow another linear MCS roll through will continue
throughout the extended forecast period will continue through Monday
when a stronger upper trough digs southeast over the western Great
Lakes region driving a Pacific type cold front well south of
Arkansas interrupting the moisture reloading cycle of this weekend
through early next week. After Wednesday drier air will move across
the state leading to a period of drier weather beginning Thursday
and likely continuing into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the forecast
period from the early morning hours on Friday through the early
morning hours on Saturday. CIGS and VSBY over the majority of the
forecast period will drop to as low as IFR flight category. Low
level wind shear will be expected across the northern, western, and
central terminals including: KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT which
will occur during Friday morning. Anticipate several complexes of
shower and thunderstorm activity which will impact the state over
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  67  82  66 /  90  90  70  20
Camden AR         80  67  82  68 /  90  70  70  20
Harrison AR       70  64  80  62 /  80  80  50  10
Hot Springs AR    77  67  84  67 /  90  70  60  20
Little Rock   AR  76  69  84  70 / 100  80  70  20
Monticello AR     82  69  83  70 /  90  80  70  30
Mount Ida AR      76  66  84  67 / 100  70  60  20
Mountain Home AR  72  65  80  63 /  90  80  70  10
Newport AR        74  68  83  67 /  80  90  80  20
Pine Bluff AR     79  68  83  69 /  90  80  80  30
Russellville AR   74  67  84  67 /  90  80  60  10
Searcy AR         73  67  83  66 /  80  90  70  20
Stuttgart AR      76  69  83  70 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...74