Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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322 FXUS64 KMAF 281826 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 126 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 An MCS to the northeast of the area moving southeast through north Texas has pushed an outflow boundary to the southwest this afternoon as apparent on visible satellite imagery , with storms possible this evening (especially across Pecos County or the southeastern Permian Basin), quickly growing upscale and moving east out of the area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the most intense and rapidly developing storms. Associated with increased moisture behind the outflow boundary, easterly winds advecting in higher boundary layer moisture, as well as lower clouds and stratus are forecast for the northeastern Permian Basin. These low clouds and increased high clouds farther southwest will inhibit radiational cooling tonight with lows above average and in the 60s, 70s along the Rio Grande and Pecos River in West Texas, and upper 50s in northernmost Lea County. Similarly, cloud cover will limit diurnal heating tomorrow, with temperatures much cooler and closer to if not slightly below average for most of the Permian Basin and Lea County, and a few degrees above average in the 90s to the southwest over most of Eddy County, the western Permian Basin, and southwest of the Pecos River. Highs 5 to 10 degrees above average with 100s along the Rio Grande and parts of the Stockton Plateau are also forecast. Highs will be lowest in northeasternmost parts of the area farthest behind the outflow boundary from today`s storms, and the outflow boundary is expected to progress as far west as the Southeast New Mexico/West Texas border before washing out and becoming less distinct. It will remain hot along/south of the Pecos River, especially south of Highway 90. Weak ridging overhead is likely to limit most shower/storm activity, but convective initiation as a result of heating of elevated terrain in the Davis Mountains and Pecos County is still possible. A 35+ kt LLJ providing 35-45kts of deep shear will help maintain updrafts and keep any storms that form persistent into tomorrow evening, before the boundary layer stabilizes with loss of daytime heating. Lows remain a few degrees above average for late May tomorrow night as widespread cloud cover persists, with 60s aside from 70s near the Rio Grande, over the eastern Stockton Plateau, and southeastern Permian Basin. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 After a "down" day Wednesday, convective chances pick up once again Thursday. Weak disturbances within zonal flow aloft along with a possible outflow boundary from overnight storms to our north will help support another round of storms by Thursday afternoon. Best coverage will be across the northern and eastern Permian Basin where instability is greatest and the best shear exists. Temperatures will climb back above normal with highs mostly in the 90s with 100s in the lower river valleys. Storm chances continue Friday into the weekend as we keep easterly flow and moisture at the surface and weak shortwaves pass aloft. The best chance for widespread storms looks to be Saturday afternoon as a stronger wave arrives. Ridging builds in early next week and the heat will be on! Widespread 100s will be on the table beginning Monday into at least Wednesday with more heat products likely. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 S winds expected before winds back to SE and then E following passage of an outflow boundary generated by storm complex NE of the area. This boundary moves SW from 22Z to 06Z Wednesday. Gusty/erratic winds with storms that form along and behind boundary may complicate wind field, with MVFR and IFR VIS in storms, VFR outside of storms. VFR conditions become MVFR at MAF as lower CIGs develop from 00Z-10Z. MVFR CIGs also likely at HOB and possibly CNM Wednesday morning. VFR CIGs expected for terminals along and SW of Pecos River. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week, mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos on the west side of a developing dryline each day. Critical minimum relative humidities will coincide with increased 20-ft winds each afternoon. ERCs remain above the 95th percentile in these areas. However, fuel density and limited opportunities for fire starts remain low. The one exception will be Saturday afternoon, when the dryline will be far enough west that lightning starts will be possible in the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupes, and areas directly south to the Presidio Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 86 68 95 / 30 30 10 30 Carlsbad 65 95 65 99 / 10 10 10 0 Dryden 70 98 73 98 / 40 20 10 20 Fort Stockton 68 99 70 101 / 20 30 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 63 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 88 65 96 / 10 20 10 10 Marfa 56 95 54 94 / 20 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 66 90 69 97 / 20 20 10 20 Odessa 67 92 70 98 / 20 20 10 20 Wink 68 98 70 102 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...94