855
FXUS64 KMAF 301737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Efficient return flow (aided by the LLJ) has 60+ dewpoints and
the dryline backed up well into our western zones this morning.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge that largely limited yesterday`s
convection has slide eastward, giving way to a shortwave, set to
glide through northern New Mexico this morning into the early
afternoon. Not only will this provide some synoptic ascent, but it
will also help cool the mid levels and steepen lapse rates. The
effect is ~3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the dryline. With daytime
heating, the dryline should sharpen up along/just east of the
TX/NM state line, with convective temperature achieved first
across the higher elevations, notably the Stockton Plateau
(surprise, surprise), and the Caprock southward into the
northwestern Permian Basin. These storms will initially be
discrete with hodographs favoring supercells, with a classic
splitting supercell for Pecos County. The HREF members are in a
pretty fair amount of agreement in a left split shooting out of
Pecos County into the Permian Basin with a dominant right mover
persisting through Terrell County. Meanwhile, the storms that
originate across Lea County and the northwestern Permian Basin
will likely grow upscale as they drift to the south and east,
likely turning into the beginning of an MCS set to push into the
Concho Valley this evening. Of note would be an outflow boundary
from ongoing convection between Lubbock and Amarillo that pushes
southward into our area. The dryline alone should be enough to
achieve CI though this boundary may also add some complexity to
the mix. There is also a chance that this boundary stabilizes the
atmosphere behind it some, so this is definitely a feature to
watch as the day progresses. With any severe storms, the primary
threats will be large hail and damaging winds but an isolated
tornado chance cannot be ruled out. The severe threat largely ends
after 03z this evening with the MCS pushing out of our area,
though showers and storms remain possible for the Lower Trans
Pecos along the MCS`s outflow as it surges southward late this
evening.

The other story aside from today`s storms will be the continued heat
with 90s for most and 100s+ along the Pecos and Rio Grande.
Temperatures seem to sneak just under Heat Advisory criteria this
afternoon, so will hold off on issuance for today.

Yet another MCS is possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning
as the result of convection in the Tx Panhandle this afternoon. If
this occurs, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
northeast Permian Basin tomorrow morning. If this occurs, it will
likely be the only storm activity for the eastern zones tomorrow as
timing of the outflow limits diurnal destabilization. However, CAMs
are hinting at storms forming of the higher terrain of south-central
New Mexico moving into Eddy/Lea County Friday evening. As for
Friday`s temperatures, they will be largely dependent on the
potential MCS outflow in which it will hold highs to the 80s and low
90s for most north/east of the Pecos River. Yet another hot day is
expected along the Rio Grande with highs pushing over 100 degrees.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday night, convection will possibly be ongoing in the northeast
behind the boundary that moved into the area earlier in the day.
Additional convection to the north will reinforce the boundary,
retreating the dryline to our western CWA border or farther by 12Z
Saturday.

Saturday, as surface winds veer back around to return flow, an upper
trough will move into the region, resulting in perhaps the best
chances of rain this forecast.  Because the dryline will be so far
west, even the higher terrain will stand a chance of getting
something, although QPF continues to look paltry.  Unfortunately,
this will also pose a risk for fire starts over the drought-
stricken higher terrain. To complicate matters further, 40-60 kts
of deep layer shear is forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the
forecast area, with steep mid-level laps rates of 7-9 C/km
throughout, resulting in a continuing severe threat as well. Highs
will remain as cool or just a smidge warmer than Friday...only
3-5 F above normal.

This cooler weather, however, will be ephemeral, as thicknesses
begin increasing Sunday in the wake of the exiting trough, with
triple digits developing in the Pecos River Valley. Westerlies over
the higher terrain will sharpen up the dryline during the afternoon,
w/isolated convection possible, mainly in the mountains south.

Unfortunately, models are still on track to develop the quasi-
stationary upper ridge over Mexico beginning about Monday, sending
highs each day into the triple digits most locations.  Cluster
analysis confirms this, moreso each run it seems.  Tuesday still
looks to be the warmest day this forecast, when highs plateau 11-13
F above normal.  There`s even trends near the end of models runs and
the LREF of the dryline headed to El Paso.  Without a dryline, rain
chances look bleak after Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

With the exception of KFST and KMAF, VFR conditions and winds
generally under 11 knots are forecast to prevail through 31/18Z.
Now, for the bad news. Convection-allowing models persist in
bringing in +TSRA at KFST and KMAF, likely with large hail,
frequent lightning, and very heavy rain, in the 30/20Z to 30/23Z
range. Confidence in MVFR to IFR conditions in +TSRA BR and
variable winds gusting up to 45 knots (and likely exceeding
that!) is sufficient to include at these two terminals this
afternoon. Look for improving conditions after 31/00Z. -bc

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week,
mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos on the west side of
a developing dryline each day.  Critical minimum relative humidities
will coincide with increased 20-ft winds each afternoon.  ERCs
remain above the 90th percentile in these areas.  However, fuel
density and limited opportunities for fire starts remain low.  The
one exception continues be Saturday afternoon, when the dryline will
be far enough west that lightning starts will be possible as far
west as the Sacramento Foothills, in the absence of appreciable
wetting rains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  86  67  91 /  50  20  10  20
Carlsbad                 62  95  66  96 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   72  97  72  96 /  20   0   0  20
Fort Stockton            67  98  70  96 /  10  10   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           64  89  64  88 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    60  89  63  91 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                    56  95  57  95 /   0   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     66  90  67  92 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                   67  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                     66  98  70  97 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...70