Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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209 FXUS64 KMAF 260852 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 352 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 WV imagery shows that the upper trough has passed through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, leaving zonal flow aloft in its wake. stiff westerlies yesterday jacked up afternoon highs above what NBM was portending, but thicknesses will come down a little today as winds veer a little to the northwest. This should result in highs only 6-8F above normal behind a weak Pac front. NBM continues to lag on the cooler side of MOS, and we`ll stay above it. That said, continuing Heat Advisories will be need for lower Brewster County, as well as Terrell. Widespread single digit relative humidity is once again anticipated, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for where this coincides with increased 20-ft winds. See Fire Weather Discussion below for more details. Tonight, with the absence of a LLJ, under mostly clear skies, and with very dry air in place, efficient radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to cool to only 2-4F above normal. Memorial Day, dirty, weak upper ridging sets in, increasing thicknesses and bringing widespread triple digits back to the area as westerlies increase a little. Heat advisories will again be warranted, only a little more widespread as highs plateau ~ 10F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A bit of a pattern change comes Monday night into Tuesday as a secondary surge of a back-door cold front plus convective outflow from storms to our east Monday afternoon shoves much better low level moisture well into our area. By 12z Tuesday, most models agree that the dryline is shoved west of the TX-NM state line. How far east the dryline mixes by the afternoon is a hot topic for Tuesday`s forecast and the global models seem to over-mix the dryline into the eastern Basin despite relatively weak westerlies aloft. The NAM seems a little more realistic and only mixes the dryline to the west- central Permian Basin. Ultimately, the dryline position could dictate how far west any storms may form. While the axis of an upper ridge stretches from northern Mexico through the Rockies, a weak shortwave rounding this feature along with convergence along the dryline could get some storms going. However, some capping is a concern given the weak subsidence from the upper ridge. Once we get within CAM range over the next 12-24 hours, these questions of storm coverage will become less uncertain. Steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to a healthy amount of CAPE (3000+ J/kg east of the dryline) and modest shear is present (30- 40kts) despite the weak flow aloft so should any storms get going, severe weather is very possible. Stay tuned as details will become more clear as we get a bit closer. Another round of storms is possible once again on Wednesday though a weak cold front/outflow moving in from the north could complicate this setup. The dryline then looks to mix a bit further east for Thurs/Fri and storm chances become limited to the far eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures stay on the warm side for most each afternoon throughout the long term with highs in the 90s and into the 100s for the river valleys. Wednesday could be the "coolest" day behind the weak cold front and due to the afternoon storm chances for the northern/eastern Permian Basin. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds. Convective temps remain to high for cu. Relatively light westerly flow will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The shortwave associated with yesterday`s strong winds in now well downstream of us, however, a lingering jet remains stretched back through West Texas and should keep winds somewhat elevated again this afternoon, especially across the western high terrain. Very poor moisture recovery in these areas is underway once again this morning with afternoon humidity expected to fall to around 5 percent. The combination of winds and low humidity maintain an axis of RFTIs of 7-8 from the Sacramento Foothills southward through the Davis Mountains and adjacent plains. While relatively low fuel density may limit large wildfire potential, the fuels in this area are exceptionally dry (ERCs over the 97th percentile), thus have issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon/evening. For Monday, winds relax more though breezy conditions could contribute to near-critical conditions in and around the Guadalupe Mountains with poor recovery and very low humidity lingering areawide. Some relief comes Monday night into Tuesday with easterly flow bringing good moisture in west of the TX-NM state line. Critical humidity still lingers west of the dryline each afternoon but light winds keep a lid on fire concerns for the remainder of the week. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along the dryline each afternoon from Tuesday onward which could the potential for lightning starts and gusty/erratic winds. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 62 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 96 61 100 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 106 71 106 75 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 100 67 104 71 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 86 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 60 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 93 55 96 59 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 96 63 101 70 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 64 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 100 62 104 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster County-Terrell. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44