Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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417 FXUS64 KMAF 241042 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 542 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. KMAF 00Z raob and VWP show southwest to west flow throughout the column, keeping moisture to the east. Today, return flow may briefly push a dryline bulge into the lower Trans Pecos this morning, but this will quickly mix east as a cold front tries to backdoor the area. The front isn`t very strong, but will shave a degree or two off of yesterday`s highs, precluding the need for any heat products today. Highs this afternoon should average only 5-7F above normal. Despite this cooling, low single- digit relative humidity is anticipated across most of the area. Tonight, surface winds go light and variable, and under mostly clear skies, efficient radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to cool to only ~ 2-4F above normal. To the west, and upper trough is forecast to be digging through the southwest CONUS. Saturday, zonal flow aloft goes to southwest as the trough moves into the region. This will develop a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes for a few hours of high winds there, and possibly advisory winds on the plains in the lee of the mountains. The new NBM 4.2 winds are not very representative of this. In fact, the NBM90 alone doesn`t generate high winds in the Guadalupes at all Saturday. We speculate that, just as an erroneous dewpoint reading can "infect" the NBM, lack of a wind sensor at KGDP is similarly "infecting" the NBM there, and resulting in lower wind forecasts. That said, we`ll increase winds Saturday afternoon/evening, and issue a High Wind Watch to cover this. These increased winds will add a downslope warming component to the mix, increasing afternoon highs to 8-10F above normal. Heat Advisories will once again be needed south. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Come 12z Sunday, we`ll still have the lingering jet associated with Saturday`s shortwave gradually departing. This contributes to another hot, dry, and breezy day with the dryline shoved all the way into San Angelo`s area. On the heels of this weekend`s shortwave, a back-door front will likely nose into the Permian Basin with some elevated northerly winds, however, plenty of sunshine takes a toll on any temperature gradient and the hot weather stays through Monday afternoon. A bit of a pattern change comes after Monday as lighter westerlies allows return flow to take hold, shoving the dryline back to the TX/NM state line by Tuesday morning. This could set the stage for the next round of thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The instability will be there east of the dryline but wind shear is going to be somewhat limited with the light flow aloft. For you rain seekers, stay tuned over the next few days as more details become available. That being said, the increased rain chances and cloud cover should provide *some* relief from the above- normal heat during the middle part of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light westerly winds will prevail today, with a weak cold front moving into the area around sundown, shifting surface flow to light E-SE after sundown. Forecast convective temps are too high for cu development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A fairly active period of fire weather is anticipated this weekend with extremely dry conditions persisting each afternoon with a shortwave pushing through on Saturday. For today, extremely low humidities develop by the afternoon (as low as 2 percent in spots), but wind speeds will only be sustained near 15-20 mph and fire weather conditions should stay elevated to near-critical at best. Moisture recovery only makes it to the east-central Permian Basin by sunrise today, with very dry conditions persisting out west. Despite the lack of winds, the humidity and very dry fuels could lead to generally IA fire potential. With the incoming shortwave for Saturday, winds will be much stronger. Following another morning of poor recovery along/west of the Pecos, humidities once again fall to 5 percent or less with westerly winds sustained 20-30 mph (and stronger winds in the mountains). This combination sends RFTIs into the 7-8 range, which when paired with the extremely dry fuels (ERCs easily above the 97th percentile west of the Pecos), suggest critical to extreme fire weather conditions for Saturday afternoon. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas. The tail-end of the jet associated with Saturday`s shortwave lingers through the area into Sunday afternoon, keeping elevated winds in place, mainly across the western high terrain. While another morning of poor moisture recovery and afternoon humidity near 5 percent, winds may be light enough to sneak below critical conditions but this forecast will be largely dictated by how strong of winds linger into Sunday. Beyond Sunday, better moisture return sends the dryline westward of the TX/NM state line each morning along with lighter winds and less dry afternoons should keep fire weather concerns on the low side through much of the work-week. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 94 61 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 94 62 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 103 69 106 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 63 104 68 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 91 57 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 53 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 61 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 94 62 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 60 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44