243
FXUS64 KMAF 251016
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest as an
upper trough approaches through the southwest CONUS.  This feature
will move through West texas and Southeast New Mexico later today,
developing a marginal mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes.
This will result in high winds through the mountains, as well as
eastern Culberson county, and advisory winds on the adjacent plains.
Soils are dry enough out there for a little BLDU this afternoon.
These downslope winds will add a warming component to temperatures,
resulting in highs ~ 4-6F above yesterday`s.  Relative humidity will
be low single digit like yesterday, but with the added increased 20-
ft winds, a Red Flag Warning is in effect.  See fire weather
discussion below for more details.  With these increased
temperatures, hazardous heat returned, and heat advisories are in
effect south.  Finally, the dryline is forecast to mix east to the
Western Low Rolling Plain by late afternoon, where isolated
thunderstorms could initiate.  CAMs depict deep-layer shear 40-50
kts and steep mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km or better, so a severe
threat will exist into the evening hours.

Tonight, with mostly clear, decreasing winds, and a very dry airmass
in place, efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to
cool to at or just above normal.

Sunday, winds veer a little northwest on the backside of the trough,
and thicknesses decrease, shaving 2-3F off Saturday`s temperatures,
yielding highs 6-8F above normal.  Despite this, heat advisories
still look warranted along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Weak upper ridging that moves in on Sunday is still going to be
overhead on Monday with a stout low level thermal ridge of 30-32C at
850mb, shaping up for another hot day. However, a back-door front is
progged to nose into the Permian Basin Monday morning. Some
uncertainty remains in how far the front makes it Monday with the
NAM being more aggressive than the global models but ensemble mean
winds and the NAM both suggest it could encroach into the central
Permian Basin. The realized effect of this front is only really a
few degrees cooler than those south of the front but more notable
northeasterly winds and better moisture will also occur north of the
front. Either way, a secondary surge of this front paired with
nocturnal moisture return brings 55-60+ degree dewpoints as far west
as the TX/NM state line...setting the stage for some more active
weather come Tuesday.

While upper ridging lingers through Tuesday afternoon, the ridge
axis will be in central Texas with southwesterly flow established,
albeit generally weak (only 30-35kts at 500mb). This flow helps
limit how far east the dryline mixes Tuesday afternoon, and this
will dictate where any storms may occur. With marginal subsidence
from the ridging inducing weak capping and limited boundaries to get
storms going, achieving CI will likely be limiting factor on
Tuesday. The global models reflect this idea with limited storm
coverage and the NBM may be overdoing PoPs a touch here, but we`ll
have to see how the evolution of this forecast goes as we get within
range of the regional and convective-allowing models. Should any
storms get going though, steep mid level lapse rates support high
CAPE profiles but shear will be somewhat limited due to the weak
flow aloft. Wednesday looks to be a repeat of Tuesday with return
flow aiding in atmospheric recovery behind any convection from the
previous night. The only difference here is that lingering outflow
boundaries could contribute to more storm development and increased
environmental shear.

Temperatures beyond Monday will still be on the hot side but *some*
relief presents itself on Tuesday and Wednesday (on the order of a
few degrees cooler...) across the Permian Basin with the added
clouds/precipitation chances.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

No changes. VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few
high clouds. Southwest flow will increase and become gusty by
late morning. Winds will decouple around sundown and veer a
little to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are on tap for this
afternoon with Red Flag Warnings remaining in effect for southeast
New Mexico and portions of West Texas. Exceptionally dry air remains
in place this morning with only marginally fair recovery occurring in
the eastern zones. Humidity quickly falls down to 4-5 percent along
and west of the TX-NM state line this afternoon in tandem with
elevated winds from an incoming upper trough. Westerly winds will be
sustained at 25-35 mph as high as 40+ mph in the warning area (with
stronger gusts in the mountains). As such, RFTIs are upwards of 7-8
this afternoon illustrating the severity of the anticipated
atmospheric conditions to support potentially dangerous fire
activity. Fuels remain extremely dry out west (ERCs above the 97th
percentile) where very little rain has been observed in the last
several weeks to months. Conditions tame this evening as winds relax
some after sunset but still remain somewhat elevated in the
mountains through the overnight hours.

The tail-end of the upper jet associated with Saturday`s increased
winds lingers overhead into Sunday afternoon as well, especially
across the western high terrain. Similarly poor overnight recovery
and very low humidities Sunday afternoon will coincide with these
elevated winds. While RFTIs are high once again, have precluded a
Fire Weather Watch for these areas given a relatively short duration
of the critical conditions and to keep emphasis on today`s fire
threat. Future updates can decide on a higher level product if
needed but Sunday looks to be at least an RFD day. Winds relax
beyond Sunday and fire weather concerns decrease as a result. It
will still remain quite dry throughout the week, especially out
west, but overnight recovery gets better with the dryline retreating
west of the TX-NM state line each night.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  65  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  63  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  105  72 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           103  68  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    95  61  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    95  57  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  66  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  68  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    102  64  99  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 11 PM CDT
     /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM CDT this evening for
     Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44