405
FXUS64 KMAF 211723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Unseasonably warm weather continues with westerly flow increasing
today as a shortwave trough passes to the north, and despite ample
high clouds this afternoon, temps will once again reach the upper
90s/low 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lower Brewster County
and those along the Rio Grande where highs will peak above 110 this
afternoon and possibly Wednesday afternoon as well. As the shortwave
departs, a backdoor cold front will push down into Texas, possibly
reaching the northern Permian Basin by early Wednesday afternoon
where it will likely stall. Unfortunately, this front won`t bring
even seasonable temperatures as warm westerly flow wins out and
temperatures once again reach the upper 90s/low 100s nearly
everywhere. Rather than bringing us cooler weather, the cold front
will meet with a disturbance moving across West Texas and initiate a
few storms Wednesday afternoon across the far eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos. Model soundings show sufficient instability,
but a lack of low-level moisture will confine any storm development
to the farthest eastern reaches of the CWA. Hi-res models continue
to shunt the moisture and better storm chances further east for
Wednesday evening, but have maintained at least minimal POPs through
the short term period. If anything does manage to develop, severe
weather cannot be ruled out, with damaging winds and large hail
as the main threats.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Much of the extended looks hot so get used to the A/C or being by
the pool, especially heading into the Memorial Day weekend. A cold
front that arrives midweek will quickly mix out Thursday afternoon
as very dry air gets transported north from Mexico. Models currently
suggest dew points could drop from near 70 F Thursday morning to
below 0 F by afternoon! In addition to the dry air, southwest winds
will increase bringing elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs
back into the 90s for most with 100s along the Rio Grande.

Deep westerly flow will lead to breezy, hot conditions through the
weekend with temperatures remaining in the upper 90s and low 100s. A
pattern change early next week could bring the next cold front our
way and finally a break in the current heat wave. Unfortunately,
rain chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue. A weak front has caused
northwest winds across terminals but these transition to westerly
this afternoon. Wind gusts are expected for western terminals.
Winds weaken tonight with eastern terminals shifting back to
southeast winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Fire potential will be focused from the Trans Pecos north to the
Guadalupe Mountains over the next week. Critically dry fuels are
expected to emerge as elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions develop. Most notably, extremely dry air will arrive
Wednesday through the weekend with RH values below 5 percent for a
widespread area. Winds will increase to around 15 mph each
afternoon along and west of the Pecos River and higher in the
mountains above 5Kft. While IA potential remains low, a large fire
is possible if one can become established in complex terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  94  65  99 /  10  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 63  95  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 104  73 104 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            70 102  65 100 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  86  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  92  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    57  94  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     70  96  64  97 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   71  96  65  97 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     67  99  62  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster
     County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91