143
ACUS11 KWNS 312344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312344
COZ000-NMZ000-010115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 312344Z - 010115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW361 with the risk of
damaging winds and hail. Storm coverage could increase this evening
though storm evolution is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 2330, UTC regional observations showed widely
scattered clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing
across parts of eastern/southeastern CO. Thus far, severe storm
coverage has remained somewhat limited within a modifying
post-frontal upslope flow regime. Still the environment remains
broadly favorable for damaging gusts and hail with ~1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear over much of the watch areas.

Later this evening into tonight, additional storm development will
remain possible along the I-25 corridor. Numerous weak updrafts are
present over the mountains and eastern foothills of the Rockies.
Recent hi-res guidance and some observational trend suggest a few of
these updrafts may eventually move east and mature with the onset of
additional forcing from the nocturnal low-level jet. While
conditional, severe storm coverage may increase in the next couple
of hours and into the early overnight within the aforementioned
favorable environment. Should this occur, hail and damaging winds
appear likely, especially over northern and central portions of
WW361. However, significant uncertainty in storm evolution remains.

..Lyons.. 05/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37000383 36980514 38200489 39520454 39920399 40140366
            40180334 40100304 39860270 39550225 39450217 38530205
            37090205 37010273 37000383