647
ACUS11 KWNS 040016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040016
OKZ000-TXZ000-040215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Texas Panhandle...Far Western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

Valid 040016Z - 040215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase in coverage
across parts of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle over the
next few hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo
shows multiple isolated severe storms ongoing across the central and
eastern Texas Panhandle. The storms are located along and near an
axis of strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to
4000 J/kg range. A shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery,
appears to be moving through the Texas Panhandle. Large-scale ascent
associated with the trough will likely support a gradual increase in
convective coverage over the next few hours. RAP forecast soundings
early this evening in the eastern Texas Panhandle have 0-6 km shear
near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will
support an isolated large-hail threat with supercells. As cells
mature early this evening, a threat for severe wind gusts will also
be possible. Low-level shear will also be strong enough for an
isolated tornado threat with any storm that can become dominant.

..Broyles.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36440008 36490073 36310134 35760170 34700113 33940010
            33949931 34449909 35019950 36109977 36440008