202
ACUS11 KWNS 260432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260431
ARZ000-MOZ000-260630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...Central/Eastern MO...Far North-Central/Northeast AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 260431Z - 260630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms may continue into central
and eastern Missouri and north-central Arkansas, and convective
trends will be monitored for potential downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms
continues to progress eastward across northeast OK, eastern KS and
western MO, supported by warm-air advection and modest ascent ahead
of a shortwave trough over the central Plains. With the exception of
the well-organized supercell moving through Rogers County OK, most
of this activity has remained elevated and relatively disorganized.
Even so, a downdraft associated with an initially elevated cell
recently produced gusts from 50 to 60 kt at it moved through far
northeast KS. A few updrafts have also pulsed up to severe
thresholds. This general trend is expected to continue eastward,
with the overall environment remaining supportive of sporadic large
hail and/or damaging gusts, particularly over
south-central/southeast MO and north-central AR where buoyancy will
be greatest. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential
watch downstream.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38219303 38939233 38779089 37439034 36009045 35749171
            36439315 38219303