Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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717
ACUS11 KWNS 300219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300218
TXZ000-NMZ000-300315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico and the southwestern Texas
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 300218Z - 300315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A localized threat of marginally severe hail around
1-1.75" in diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible over the
next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has rapidly developed along
an outflow boundary across portions of far eastern NM. Recent radar
imagery from KFDX and KAMA indicates there are two significant
updrafts very close to the KFDX radar, with the southern most one
being a supercell. Maintenance of these updrafts should remain
favorable for at least another 1-2 hours considering increasing deep
layer shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and LLJ enhancement
juxtaposed with a narrow instability axis just to their east. As
these storms progress even further east later tonight, they will
encounter increasing CINH and poorer mid-level lapse rates. A WW is
not likely at this time as coverage should remain fairly limited.
..Barnes/Hart.. 05/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34640369 35240379 35560316 35590265 35520215 35170189
34730196 34310236 34300284 34340328 34430356 34640369