Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 240236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240235
TXZ000-OKZ000-240400-
Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Areas affected...Southeastern Oklahoma and north central Texas near
the Red River
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240235Z - 240400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of north central TX and far southern/southeastern OK near
the Red River through late tonight.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an area of ascent slowly
lifting northeastward out of north central TX. This ascent is
located near the nose of deeper theta-e advection via a LLJ, on the
southern fringe of a residual cold pool, and is likely associated
with isentropic ascent. RAP forecast soundings over the next few
hours suggest the developing convective environment will support
storm organization, with effective shear around 50 kt. These
thunderstorms should remain relatively elevated, rooted around 850
mb or so, and MUCAPE is expected to be around 3500 J/kg. Isolated
large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter may accompany any of the
more discrete updrafts that manage to develop through late tonight.
Convective trends will be monitored for a possible watch.
..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32919643 32949703 33059740 33509759 34229724 34259688
34439664 34499596 34249554 33929528 33399532 32989568
32919643