Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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060
ACUS11 KWNS 212054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212054
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-212300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0876
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Areas affected...Northeast/North-Central/Central MO...West-Central
IL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...
Valid 212054Z - 212300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all
severe hazards is increasing and a watch may be needed within the
next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has recently shown
increasingly agitated cumulus across north-central MO, ahead of the
ongoing line of storms moving through northwest MO. This increased
vertical development has occurred subsequent with the erosion of the
convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis. Convective initiation
is possible within this cumulus field, although there is likely
still a warm layer around 800-700 mb that could inhibit updrafts
somewhat. If initiation is realized, the environment is favorable
for storm intensification/organization, with supercells capable of
all severe hazards possible. Even if this early initiation is not
realized, the ongoing storms are expected to maintain their
intensity as they move into northwest MO around 23Z. A downstream
watch will likely be needed over portions of the region to address
the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 39779339 40459286 40379062 39619032 38989102 38899323
39779339