Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 222338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222338 COR
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northern and western Kentucky...far
southeastern Indiana...and southwest Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222338Z - 230100Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO ON GRAPHIC
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms extending southwest to northeast
along a cold front/surface trough have rapidly developed early this
evening, with a couple of more robust updrafts noted near the KY/IN
border. A few supercells will be possible over the next 3 hours.
DISCUSSION...Enhanced surface convergence along a cold front near
the KY/IN border has led to the development of a line of
thunderstorms. An instability axis is noted along and ahead of this
zone, where MLCAPE is around 2000 J/kg. Localized deep layer shear
is sufficient for some storm organization, and a few embedded
supercells will be possible through at least sunset. Waning
instability through the evening, and a linear mode, should keep the
severe hail threat localized. A severe damaging wind threat may
accompany larger clusters or a bowing segment or two. Convective
trends will be monitored for a possible watch.
..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 37798657 37928660 38118653 38358624 38618587 38838564
38988544 39288521 40318408 40258361 39428355 39078382
38788396 38428418 37888470 37668524 37648584 37798657