185
ACUS11 KWNS 020035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020035
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...parts of the northern TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 020035Z - 020200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in southern KS may
eventually cluster and move south into parts of the Panhandles and
western OK. Additional storms are also possible farther south with a
risk primarily for damaging winds and hail. A new WW will be issued
shortly.

DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed a loose cluster of strong to severe storms ongoing near the
KS/OK Panhandle border. Some new development was also noted farther
south into TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
35-40 kt of effective shear which will likely support some risk for
organized updrafts capable of severe wind and hail. Hi-res guidance
suggests clustering should continue into this evening, though the
southern extent of the severe risk remains unclear. While storms
have been slow to organize early this evening, the broadly favorable
environment will support a severe risk. A new WW will be issued
shortly.

..Lyons/Hart.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36990219 37050103 37040025 37050013 37009851 36959815
            36699796 36399814 36029859 35519938 35509979 35520043
            35670151 35760202 36050215 36990219