325
ACUS11 KWNS 280401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280400
TXZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley...South Central
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 280400Z - 280500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging gusts continues
across the Middle Rio Grande Valley/south central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Outflow-dominant thunderstorm that moved across deep
south Texas has left rain-cooled air in its wake, with temperatures
now generally in the 70s. This cooling and resultant convective
inhibition will likely preclude the development of surface-based
thunderstorm for the rest of the evening. However, ample mid-level
moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place over the
region, supportive of at least some potential for elevated
thunderstorms. Isolated hail could occur with the strongest of these
elevated storms.

Farther north into Webb and Zapata Counties, an interesting
convective evolution is underway with the storm just across the
border surging eastward along the outflow from the storms farther
south. Strong buoyancy and shear remains in place, and large hail
and strong gusts will be possible with this storm for at least the
next hour. Some in-situ development has also occurred near LRD amid
strong low-level moisture convergence. Large hail and strong gusts
are possible with this storm as well.

..Mosier.. 05/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   27639982 27929959 27739864 26839776 25959791 26249906
            27049953 27639982