526
ACUS11 KWNS 281710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281709
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of far southern Kansas into western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281709Z - 281915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms that manage to persist over the next few hours. The
severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells continue to
progress across far southwestern KS into western OK, most of which
have a history of severe hail, including a left-splitting storm in
KS that has produced 2+ inch diameter hail. These storms continue to
traverse an elevated buoyancy gradient, characterized by 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE (most of which is above
700 mb per latest RAP forecast soundings). Strong unidirectional
speed shear above 700 mb is contributing to straight, elongated
hodographs and around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, any
storms that persist within this CAPE/shear parameter space will have
the potential to produce some hail (perhaps severe) over the next
few hours, especially if any left-splitting supercells can
materialize. However, there are some indications the ongoing storms
may gradually weaken with time as they approach more stable air left
behind by an earlier MCS. As such, any remaining severe threat may
be brief and localized, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36169988 36869943 37329877 37349838 37009779 36529738
            35969711 35119692 34319705 34249707 33959764 34019839
            34209866 34579922 36169988