772
ACUS11 KWNS 272340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272340
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-280145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania into the Delmarva region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...335...

Valid 272340Z - 280145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333, 335
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues primarily for the southern
half of WW 333, especially downstream of a cluster of organized
convection moving across the Delmarva region.

DISCUSSION...Gradual and modest air mass recovery has been ongoing
over the past couple of hours across central to eastern PA and NJ in
the wake of earlier convection. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates
suggest MLCAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg across eastern
PA/NJ with strong deep-layer wind shear remaining over the region
ahead of the approaching upper wave. Thunderstorms that have
recently developed along a subtle surface confluence axis may see
intensification to severe limits over the next hour or so before the
onset of more substantial nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

Further south, a cluster of discrete/semi-discrete cells has evolved
over the Delmarva region. This activity remains well within the
buoyancy axis where low 70s dewpoints are supporting MLCAPE closer
to 1500 J/kg. With moisture continuing to increase downstream into
DE, storm maintenance and/or intensification is expected with a
continued threat for damaging winds and large hail. A brief tornado
threat may materialize across the northern Chesapeake Bay area
within the hour given modest (around 100 m2/s2) 0-1 km SRH just
ahead of the ongoing storms, but southwesterly winds further
downstream into DE suggest weaker low-level SRH and lower tornado
potential.

..Moore.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38567485 38477515 38437571 38437618 38537677 38667723
            38857738 38987743 39217725 39547699 39717682 39987665
            40367679 40617699 41087677 41437562 41127402 40647383
            39967395 39427423 38977453 38837474 38567485