Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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897
ACUS11 KWNS 281732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281731
NCZ000-SCZ000-281930-
Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...coastal NC and the Outer Banks
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281731Z - 281930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small
hail are possible through the afternoon/early evening.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite early
this afternoon along the North Carolina coast, and storms will
likely develop in the next couple of hours. This activity is
developing along a weak surface boundary. Strong heating and a very
moist boundary layer (dewpoints 68-73 F) are contributing to MLCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/kg. Stronger effective shear will remain north
and west of the area, but 20-30 kt should be sufficient for
organized updrafts. Locally strong gusts of 45-60 mph will be
possible, along with small hail in stronger cells. A watch is not
expected given the marginal nature of the severe risk and storms
likely to move quickly offshore.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34127874 35717592 35727538 35157524 34387627 33647732
33457827 33587872 34127874