Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 280825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280825
TXZ000-OKZ000-281000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...North TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...
Valid 280825Z - 281000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
continues.
SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts and large hail
is expected farther south in north Texas through sunrise. An
additional severe thunderstorm watch or extension of ongoing WW 339
is likely.
DISCUSSION...The deepest/most intense thunderstorms within WW 339
were centered over Clay County, TX. Recent radar evolution suggest
this activity is beginning to pivot southeastward towards the large
CAPE reservoir emanating north from central TX. While CAM guidance
has been slow with the evolution of early morning convection, the
07Z HRRR run finally appears more consistent with the 00Z NSSL-MPAS
runs in indicating a substantial linear cluster accelerating
southeastward across parts of the Metroplex. With deepening
convective cores to its east, within the downstream warm-advection
flank and the FWS VWP sampling the strongest low-level jet of the
night (around 40 kts), this scenario appears increasingly plausible.
Damaging gusts could reach 65-80 mph as the cold pool matures
towards sunrise.
..Grams.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34059777 34059737 33599639 32699570 32299571 32039600
31949643 32029698 32309740 32929800 33269838 33829850
34029844 34059777