032
ACUS11 KWNS 271904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271904
TXZ000-272130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of north/central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271904Z - 272130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon. Very large hail in the 2.75 to 4 inch diameter range will
be possible along with strong gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A roughly west to east oriented surface boundary is
noted across north Texas this afternoon. To the south of this
boundary, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are prevalent.
Strong heating into the 90s F of this very moist boundary-layer and
very steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting strong to extreme
destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/kg). Visible satellite has shown
an increase in coverage of cumulus over the region, with areas of
vertical development along the boundary and within a band of
low-level confluence to the southwest of the Metroplex. While
large-scale ascent will remain somewhat modest, increasing
thunderstorm activity across northeast Mexico and increase in
midlevel moisture impinging on south-central TX per latest water
vapor imagery suggests some modest ascent is increasing over the
region.

Once convection deepens sufficiently, updrafts will likely grow
vigorously given large instability and very steep midlevel lapse
rates. Vertical shear will support supercells, with long/straight
hodographs within this thermodynamic environment favoring very large
hail. Locally strong to severe gusts may also accompany the
strongest cells. Timing and coverage of severe storms is still a bit
uncertain, but expected storms to develop by around 4pm CDT. While
coverage may be sparse, potential for significant hail will likely
require a watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON   33489744 32849599 32299526 31759521 31299546 30879623
            30669674 30619733 30709805 30949835 31749866 32459881
            32939882 33299863 33539836 33489744