Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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727
ACUS11 KWNS 292225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292224
TXZ000-292330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateua
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292224Z - 292330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells may develop within the
next 1-2 hours across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Permian
basin. Large hail up to 1.5 to 2.5" in diameter, and perhaps
localized severe wind gusts may accompany these thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows continued attempts
of deep moist convection over the Davis Mountains via orographic
ascent and easterly upslope flow. Surface observations across this
region, combined with modified RAP forecast soundings, suggest
localized CINH has eroded here, with very steep mid level lapse
rates in place. Large CAPE within the hail growth zone, combined
with effective deep layer shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, will promote
some updraft organization. However, more broader scale forcing
mechanisms will limit the overall coverage of the severe threat.
..Barnes/Hart.. 05/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29890320 30360344 31030355 31580283 31570187 30820134
30220124 29910227 29880317 29890320