924
ACUS11 KWNS 251403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251403
SCZ000-GAZ000-251530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia into far
western South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251403Z - 251530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may strengthen from sometime late this morning into
early afternoon. Damaging gusts and hail will be the primary
threats. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms continues
to propagate southeast toward an airmass that continues to
destabilize with continued strong diurnal heating. Surface
temperatures are already warming into the 80s F amid low 70s F
dewpoints, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. Some
MLCINH remains in place, but continued heating should erode
remaining inhibition and steepen low-level lapse rates, both
boosting instability and mixing the boundary layer in the process.
Should the ongoing convective cluster persist, opportunity exists
for stronger wet downbursts to ensue, with damaging gusts becoming a
concern. A 40 kt 500 mb speed max will also graze by the region to
the southwest, contributing to some hodograph elongation, fostering
some hail potential (perhaps to severe limits).

Given overall severe potential, convective trends will continue to
be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32198481 33098439 33648323 33698252 33518184 33288155
            32988152 32538164 31948197 31678255 31488326 31698448
            32198481