910
FXUS64 KMEG 041149
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
649 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Warm, humid, and wet conditions will continue through Wednesday as a
series of systems trek across the region. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours through Wednesday. Dry and less humid conditions will settle
in Thursday and Friday before another system arrives this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Relatively weak zonal flow aloft will persist through Wednesday
resulting in a continuing active weather pattern. Several
shortwaves will trek across the region and keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Return flow at the surface will
keep dewpoints in the 70s until the pattern change and provide
ample instability for convective activity. Thankfully,
deterministic soundings hint at weak shear to continue and
suppress updrafts from becoming too severe. A Marginal Risk for
severe storms is in place today as MLCAPE values hang around 1500
J/kg at peak heating. Convection looks to initiate along some sort
of outflow boundary left by a remnant MCV that settled into the
region late last night. Any storms that do intensify propose a
damaging wind, large hail, and localized flash flooding threat.
PWs are forecast to be ~1.8" (which nears the 90th percentile) on
a fairly saturated surface. Additional rainfall will aggravate
already elevated rivers and streams, resulting in flooding
concerns.

A slow moving cold front will start to approach on Wednesday
morning. Thunderstorms associated with this front may be severe over
the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex region, but storms look to weaken
as they approach the Mid-South. Any residual outflow boundaries
could be enough for initiation and storms would likely be outflow
dominant which could provide a damaging wind threat. There is a
lot of uncertainty with timing and coverage on Wednesday. QPF
through the remainder of the active pattern is generally 2" or
less, but locally higher amounts are possible.

A pattern change looks to come as a reinforcing cold front crosses
the area on Thursday. Somewhat cooler conditions will settle in on
Friday with highs still in the 80s, however, dewpoints will hang
in the 50s and 60s providing a brief break in humid conditions.

Unfortunately, high pressure will not reign for long as a low
pressure system will track across the Great Lakes Region this
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region as a
cold front moves across the area.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mainly VFR conds will persist through the period. The exception
will be TUP and MKL where MVFR CIGs may persist for a couple of
hours this morning. A mesoscale convective complex will rotate
into the region from the west this afternoon and ignite SHRAs and
TSRAs. Confidence on timing and spatial coverage of SHRAs and
TSRAs remains low. Hi-res models have a general consensus for
timing, cut coverage and intensity varies widely. MVFR CIGs look
to develop after 05Z and could persist into the next TAF cycle.

Obs at JBR and MKL have been intermittent, so AMD NOT SKED is
being carried through this TAF set.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3