321
FXUS62 KMFL 291856
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
256 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along
the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon, with chances for localized
flooding, gusty winds and small hail possible across southeast FL.

Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an
atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential thunderstorm
impacts, with MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg, surface lapse rates > 6 C/km,
DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs > 1.65 inches, which could result in
damaging wind gusts and small hail with some of the stronger
thunderstorms. At this time, the limiting factor for hail
development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C.
The above-average PWAT values, combined with modest westerly-
northwesterly steering flow aloft, could result in an enhanced
flooding threat for East Coast metro areas late this afternoon as
storm clusters form and propagate from northwest to southeast.

Temperatures will remain hot and humid day (prior to convective
initiation) with highs ranging from the low 90s near the immediate
coasts to the upper 90s in the Interior, along with widespread
peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees.

The main change to the setup for Thursday will be the synoptic flow
gradually trending more easterly, favoring convective progression
towards the Interior and eventually west coast (as opposed to the
last few days) Thursday afternoon. Once again gusty winds will
remain the main threat with any storms, although a widespread
organized severe threat looks unlikely (and any heavy rainfall
threat will be tempered by antecedent dry conditions). One impact of
the more notable easterly flow will be the start of a slight cooling
trend for the east coast, with highs dropping a couple degrees
relative to Wednesday (albeit still above normal), although
temperatures likely remain similar over the Interior/west coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

The setup for Friday will be similar to Thursday with light easterly
synoptic flow prevailing, favoring the highest rain chances over the
Interior and west coast and similar temperatures to Thursday.
Heading into the weekend high pressure north of the area will build
southward, likely pushing the previously-stalled front through the
area as a weak backdoor cold front. This will usher in a shift to a
moderate easterly regime Saturday which should persist into the
start of the upcoming workweek. A drier (particularly at the mid-
lvls) and more stable airmass will filter in behind the boundary
which will limit thunderstorm chances (particularly for the east
coast), with any rain likely of the shallower quick-moving shower
variety. Temperatures will also come down a few degrees with highs
in the mid to upper 80s over the east coast, and lower 90s over the
Interior and west coast, with dewpoints also coming down a bit to
keep heat indices depressed relative to the recent very high values.

This setup looks to largely remain in place through the beginning of
next week as surface high pressure remains situated off the Carolina
coast and the Gulf. As a result, further daily convection will be
limited to sea and gulf breeze development each afternoon.
Temperatures will begin to slowly increase by a degree or two each
day as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions with VCSH/VCTS for East Coast TAF
sites this afternoon which could require short-fuse TEMPOs.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
period. SE winds around 10kt along the Atlantic sites, with the
westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Winds go light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Mostly benign boating conditions will continue as light sea-breeze-
induced flow prevails across all local waters (ESE over the Atlantic
waters, W over the Gulf waters). Seas will remain at or below 3
feet. Isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon could
result in localized higher seas and winds. Winds will increase out
of the east late this week into the upcoming weekend with increasing
seas over the Atlantic waters by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  78  90 /  30  30  10  20
West Kendall     74  94  74  92 /  30  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        76  93  78  92 /  40  30  10  20
Homestead        76  91  76  90 /  30  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  79  88 /  40  30  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  76  90  78  89 /  60  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   78  94  78  93 /  40  30  10  20
West Palm Beach  74  91  76  90 /  60  20  10  20
Boca Raton       75  91  78  90 /  60  20  10  20
Naples           78  95  75  94 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV/Carr
LONG TERM....Redman/Carr
AVIATION...ATV