Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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705 FXUS62 KMFL 210533 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 133 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Most active weather was observed over central and eastern Broward county this afternoon, with some reports of wind gusts over 60 mph in a couple of locations. Yet, the majority of SoFlo remained dry, and with afternoon temps again climbing into the 90s where there was no rain/cloud cover. Skies have been fairly quick in clearing out as the remnants from previous storms are now well offshore over the Atlantic. A few evening showers or an isolated storm is still possible, mainly around the Lake area, but should be brief, with very low chances of strong convection happening through 10pm. Lows tonight will cool down a bit more over the Lake region with temps down to the mid-upper 60s, around 70s, and low-mid 70s elsewhere. Although locations immediately adjacent to the Atlantic coast could remain in the upper 70s or even 80. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area, with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially producing gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat index values at or below 100 degrees. The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. The 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. This benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea-breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the east by early Tuesday afternoon to around 10 kts. Scattered showers and storms will develop near the east coast terminals as Tuesday afternoon progresses. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible in and around storms. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the west in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 76 90 77 / 50 30 50 30 West Kendall 91 74 89 74 / 50 30 50 30 Opa-Locka 91 77 90 76 / 50 20 50 20 Homestead 89 75 88 77 / 60 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 88 77 / 50 20 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 76 88 76 / 40 20 40 20 Pembroke Pines 90 77 89 77 / 50 20 50 20 West Palm Beach 88 74 88 74 / 40 20 30 10 Boca Raton 88 76 87 75 / 40 20 40 20 Naples 90 74 91 74 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...CWC