826
FXUS62 KMFL 200619
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
219 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the
western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower
amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its
western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be
relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the
area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will
gradually push through our area today into Tuesday.

Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent
ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze,
expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon
with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze
and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is
not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates
and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm
temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE
values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a
threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft.

Although temperatures will still be well above average in the
prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier
air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum
heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area).

The front will largely have worked its way through the area by
Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east-
northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a
trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered
storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the
northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area).
Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which
while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel
pleasant after the mid-May heatwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the
east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over
South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in
reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging
situated over the southeastern United States will allow for
relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of
synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze
circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable
locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical
thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms
that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent
along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign
pattern.

Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as
surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain
to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface
ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will
remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures
across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea-
breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will
range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South
Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern
Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the
past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be
followed, especially for vulnerable populations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the AM hours
although a few showers could be possible near the SE terminals.
There will be a chance of restrictions this afternoon in
thunderstorms over the east coast terminals beginning around 18Z.
Light and variable winds this morning will trend W-SW this morning,
although a shift to the E-SE will be possible along the east
coast terminals this afternoon although confidence in the sea
breeze is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak
front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week
period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will
decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  76  88  76 /  50  40  60  40
West Kendall     95  74  90  73 /  50  30  60  40
Opa-Locka        94  75  90  76 /  60  40  60  40
Homestead        94  75  89  76 /  40  30  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  91  76  87  76 /  60  40  50  40
N Ft Lauderdale  92  75  87  76 /  60  50  50  40
Pembroke Pines   94  76  91  76 /  60  40  60  40
West Palm Beach  91  72  87  73 /  60  40  40  30
Boca Raton       93  74  88  75 /  60  50  50  40
Naples           91  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Carr