Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
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723 FNUS72 KMFL 201419 FWSMFL Spot Forecast for Jerome wildfire...Florida State Parks National Weather Service Miami FL 1019 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 EDT on May 20. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... Generally westerly winds at the site today, gradually becoming more northeasterly by Tuesday as a front crosses South Florida. A Gulf Breeze could develop Tuesday afternoon and intrude towards the site, resulting in westerly winds once again, but there remains some uncertainty regarding that possibility. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms at this location later this afternoon with limited coverage anticipated. Relative humidity values will dip into the 40-50% range later today and again tomorrow afternoon, but should remain above threshold criteria. Expect generally good dispersion values today given the forecast mixing heights. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers late in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 94. Min humidity........47 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph. Dispersion index....57 increasing to 69 in the afternoon. LVORI...............1. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........27 25 27 25 16 11 6 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 20 20 30 30 20 LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Temp............89 90 91 92 94 92 92 RH..............61 58 54 52 47 51 51 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.12 15 16 17 16 16 16 Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.10 12 13 14 15 15 15 Dispersion idx..54 59 65 73 73 72 69 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 71. Max humidity........93 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 7 to 8 mph overnight. Dispersion index....54 decreasing to 5 early in the evening. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........8 9 10 7 13 11 12 12 16 19 20 17 Weather cov.....SCH Weather type....RW Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 LAL.............2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............91 88 85 83 81 79 78 76 75 74 73 73 RH..............52 57 65 70 74 82 85 90 90 93 93 93 20 FT wind dir..W W W W NW NW N N N N NE N 20 FT wind spd..6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.15 13 12 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW N N NE NE NE NE Transp wind spd.15 14 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 Dispersion idx..56 52 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 LVORI...........1 1 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers late in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 94. Min humidity........44 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest 5 to 6 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to the west 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Dispersion index....7 increasing to 37. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........15 13 5 12 27 27 Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 30 30 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 Temp............72 73 83 88 92 93 RH..............97 97 72 55 44 46 20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE W W 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 3 20 FT wind gust.6 6 5 8 9 10 Mix hgt (ft)....700 1100 3000 5000 7000 5200 Transport wind..NE 7 NE 7 NE 7 N 6 NW 5 W 6 Dispersion idx..3 10 26 36 40 40 LVORI...........7 7 3 1 1 1 $$ Forecaster...Torres-Vazquez Requested by...Steven Bass Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2414719.0/MFL .DELDT 05/20/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0