723
FNUS72 KMFL 201419
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for Jerome wildfire...Florida State Parks
National Weather Service Miami FL
1019 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 EDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Generally westerly winds at the site today, gradually becoming
more northeasterly by Tuesday as a front crosses South Florida.
A Gulf Breeze could develop Tuesday afternoon and intrude towards
the site, resulting in westerly winds once again, but there
remains some uncertainty regarding that possibility.

There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms at this
location later this afternoon with limited coverage anticipated.
Relative humidity values will dip into the 40-50% range later
today and again tomorrow afternoon, but should remain above
threshold criteria. Expect generally good dispersion values today
given the forecast mixing heights.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    late in the morning, then chance of showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....57 increasing to 69 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  25  27  25  16  11  6
Weather cov.....SCH     SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW      RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  20  20  30  30  20
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............89  90  91  92  94  92  92
RH..............61  58  54  52  47  51  51
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.12  15  16  17  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  14  15  15  15
Dispersion idx..54  59  65  73  73  72  69
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 7
                    to 8 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....54 decreasing to 5 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8   9   10  7   13  11  12  12  16  19  20  17
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............91  88  85  83  81  79  78  76  75  74  73  73
RH..............52  57  65  70  74  82  85  90  90  93  93  93
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NE  N
20 FT wind spd..6   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.15  13  12  9   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  14  13  12  10  9   9   8   8   8   7   7
Dispersion idx..56  52  6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
LVORI...........1   1   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   7

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    late in the morning. Chance of showers in the
                    afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
                    5 to 6 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    shifting to the west 6 to 7 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 37.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........15     13     5      12     27     27
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     20     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3
Temp............72     73     83     88     92     93
RH..............97     97     72     55     44     46
20 FT wind dir..NE     NE     NE     NE     W      W
20 FT wind spd..2      2      2      3      3      3
20 FT wind gust.6      6      5      8      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1100   3000   5000   7000   5200
Transport wind..NE 7   NE 7   NE 7   N 6    NW 5   W 6
Dispersion idx..3      10     26     36     40     40
LVORI...........7      7      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Torres-Vazquez
Requested by...Steven Bass
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414719.0/MFL
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0