762
FXUS66 KMFR 301018
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
318 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.DISCUSSION...Ridging will then remain in control through Friday,
with dry conditions and a warming trend that will peak with well
above normal highs Friday afternoon. The thermal trough will
return during this time, resulting in strong north to northeast
winds in the coast range and a Chetco Effect, which will lead to
warmer temperatures around Brookings than elsewhere on the coast.

A weak trough and front then arrive late Friday into early
Saturday, and although very little, if any, measurable rain is
expected outside of the immediate coast, afternoon temperatures
will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler Saturday than on Friday.

A second, much deeper trough will arrive late Sunday into Monday,
and this will reinforce the cooling trend, bringing temperatures
down below normal for Monday. Temperatures will only be half the
story, however, as the system is forecast to produce measurable
rain for almost all areas along and west of the Cascades, with a
decent chance for some areas to the east as well. Model moisture
values for this event are high, and would be significant even
during the winter, but will pass through the area quickly. This
means that the band of moderate to heavy precipitation will not
last long, entering the coast late Sunday evening and
exiting/dissipating Monday morning. Some post-frontal showers
will continue into Monday afternoon, but all precipitation should
come to an end by Monday evening.

For the rest of the week, there is quite a spread amongst the
model solutions, mainly resulting from differences in how strong
the next ridge will be, and the timing of when it builds in
overhead. In other words, we know that the remainder of the week
will trend dry and much warmer, likely well above normal for
early June, but the magnitude and timing of that heat remains
could be delayed by a day or so from the current forecast. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z TAFs...Along the coast VFR conditions continue
overnight with the exception of quick moving low clouds coming from
the north that are reaching Curry County now. Northerly winds will
pick up again this morning and afternoon, and gusts could reach 20-
25 kts.

Inland, west of the Cascades, ceilings are expected to remain VFR
through the TAF period. There are low clouds in southern Coos County
near Myrtle Point and Powers. Winds will be slightly breezy Thursday
afternoon, and some locations could see wind gusts reaching 20-25
knots at most.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. Moderate winds have weakened and winds will remain below 12
kts through the TAF period. -Schaaf/Miles

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Thursday, May 30, 2024...A thermal trough
is developing tonight, resulting in increasing north winds reaching
Small Craft Advisory conditions for all areas south of Bandon. The
thermal trough will strengthen further, peaking Thursday evening,
and persisting through at least Friday evening; resulting in gale
force winds for most areas south of Cape Blanco and for isolated
instances across the waters between Bandon and Cape Blanco.
Meanwhile small craft conditions will expand north over the
rest of the waters that will last into at least Friday evening.

The thermal trough will weaken overnight Friday into Saturday and
north winds will diminish as an upper trough approaches. Calmer seas
are expected by the weekend and into early next week after the wind
waves have diminished. -Schaaf/Miles

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$