Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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465 FXUS66 KMFR 281804 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1104 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. MVFR ceilings are likely to persist from about Cape Blanco north, including North Bend through the TAF period. Although there ceilings could briefly improve to VFR towards 0z, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF. The south coast should remain VFR through the TAF period. Inland, west of the Cascades, Ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. It could be a close call at Roseburg towards 12z, with ceilings getting close to 3000 feet. Winds will increase during the day, with gusts up to 25 kts possible at Medford between 21z and 3z. East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The main concern is moderate to occasionally strong winds with peak gusts possibly exceeding 30 kts at Klamath Falls. The other concern is isolated thunderstorms over Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties late this afternoon and evening. However, they are not expected at Klamath Falls. -Petrucelli && ...Updated Marine Section... .MARINE (Updated at 8:45 AM)...A weak swell and light wind speeds will lead to relatively calm conditions over the waters today. By tomorrow, a thermal trough will strengthen and gale force winds are possible by late afternoon/early evening. Come Thursday, we will likely see the strongest wind speeds over the waters for the week with gale force winds likely. The probability for reaching at least gale force winds on Thursday is around 50-95% south of Cape Blanco. The probability is highest across our southern waters (85-95%) on Thursday where gale force winds are most likely. We are anticipating relatively calmer seas by the weekend and into early next week as the thermal trough starts to break down on Friday. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024/ ..Updated AVIATION discussion... DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some lower stratus along the coast and in the Coquille Valley and entering the Umpqua basin. Additionally, higher clouds associated with a frontal boundary remain offshore but are starting to fill in inland. There were a few thunderstorms yesterday east of the Cascades, and the area remains relatively moist. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible once again. Showers and storms are expected mainly across portions of the East Side, with a few showers occurring offshore and along northern Coos and Douglas Counties. However, most precipitation will be occurring north of our area. This front will push through southern Oregon tonight and it will also bring breezy west winds this afternoon and evening. Overnight, the lingering showers will dissipate. Temperatures today and Wednesday will be a bit cooler as well, but frost and freeze concerns are not expected. Conditions will dry out Wednesday into Saturday as a ridge of high pressure returns. This will help warm us up and dry us out once again. Then on Sunday into Monday, the next front will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This front will have the potential to bring additional light precipitation to the area with showers in the forecast. Ensembles have large variations about the timing and strength of the front, but will go with the national blend of models for now. This front may bring temperatures back toward normal; but these details are likely to emerge as we get closer to that time frame. -Schaaf && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon for PZZ356-376. && $$