Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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086 FXUS66 KMFR 282142 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 242 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .DISCUSSION...overall the weather should be fairly repetitive this week, with weak high pressure dominating once the current trough moves to the east. The broad trough sitting offshore of Vancouver Island and has forced a weakening front onshore. This has caused some weak showers, but generally just dry cumulus, up over the terrain west of the Cascades in the Coast ranges and Douglas County. East of the Cascades, thunderstorms are beginning to form today in Lassen and Modoc County. There is a 10-20% chance for further isolated thunderstorm activity across Lake County as well as the front moves through, but the better environment is in the eastern half of Oregon into Idaho. Overall, these showers/thunderstorms should cause no more than a nuisance level of impact. Temperatures are expected to remain around the mid 70s to low 80s for most places inland from the coast, which is near or at normal for this time of year. The one exception would be in the Umpqua Basin where if fog forms tonight, the forecast could be a few degrees on the warm side. Wednesday into Friday, a thermal trough will peak and this will bring moderate recoveries to most places outside of Douglas, Coos, or Curry County. The thermal trough will also cause strong north- northwest winds in the coast range and a chetco effect, which will lead to warmer temperatures around Brookings than elsewhere on the coast. The strong winds at the coast should subside on the weekend. The climate prediction center is hinting already at some higher than normal chances for a heat wave in the extended range of the forecast and it is worth taking a look at their outlook if you are concerned about heat. -Miles && .AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. MVFR ceilings are likely to persist from about Cape Blanco north, including North Bend through the TAF period. Although there ceilings could briefly improve to VFR towards 0z, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF. The south coast should remain VFR through the TAF period. Inland, west of the Cascades, Ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. It could be a close call at Roseburg towards 12z, with ceilings getting close to 3000 feet. Winds will increase during the day, with gusts up to 25 kts possible at Medford between 21z and 3z. East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The main concern is moderate to occasionally strong winds with peak gusts possibly exceeding 30 kts at Klamath Falls. The other concern is isolated thunderstorms over Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties late this afternoon and evening. However, they are not expected at Klamath Falls. -Petrucelli && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM Tuesday, May 28, 2024...Relatively calm conditions are expected into Wednesday morning with light to moderate winds and low seas. A thermal trough will develop during the day Wednesday resulting in increasing north winds that will reach Small Craft for all of the southern waters, except beyond 5 nm from shore west of Port Orford. The thermal trough will strengthen further late Wednesday night through at least Friday evening and this will result in Gale force winds for a good chunk of the southern waters, except beyond 40 nm from shore west of Cape Blanco. Meanwhile Small Craft Conditions will expand north over the rest of the waters that will last into at least Friday evening. The thermal trough will weaken overnight Friday into Saturday with north winds diminishing as an upper trough approaches. Calmer seas are expected by the weekend and into early next week. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356- 376. && $$