Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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722 FXUS66 KMFR 261022 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 322 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 .DISCUSSION... Temperatures will warm up today with high pressure building over the region. We`re currently looking at a 10 degree warm up across most locations. High temperatures will be warmer than average for this time of year as highs rise into the mid 80`s in valleys west of the Cascades. This is really the main theme for Sunday as the probability of precipitation is essentially zero with mostly clear skies across the forecast area. Temperatures are also too cool for a real heat risk. Perhaps the main risk here is cold water safety during the holiday weekend as people recreating near cooler rivers are at higher risk of cold water shock. Otherwise, pretty quiet weather for Sunday As for Memorial day, not much will change except for a deep upper level wave moving towards the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for some deeper synoptic lift and a low threat of thunderstorms east of the Cascades on Monday evening. Model BUFR soundings show a deep inverted V sounding with some convective available potential energy in Lake County. Some of these thunderstorms could be dry, although it`s not the deepest dry boundary layer we`ve seen in our forecast area. One can see some of the deterministic models initiating convection on Monday evening. The probability of cloud to ground lightning is about 10 to 15 percent with 20 miles of locations in Lake County. Its worth noting models are picking up on the threat of thunderstorms in western Siskiyou County as well around the Trinity Horn. The axis of the previously mentioned upper level wave will come onshore sometime around Tuesday afternoon or evening. As a result, the probability of precipitation will increase over some sections of the forecast area around Douglas County and the high central Cascades in Douglas and Klamath counties. It appears a cold front will accompany this wave and temperatures should trend a few degrees cooler on Wednesday. We`ll also have to keep an eye out on winds east of the Cascades on Wednesday evening as there could be a strong west to east pressure gradient developing on Wednesday evening. As for Thursday and Friday, guidance has started to turn drier compared to the forecast yesterday at this time. It seems ensembles are catching onto a ridge building in briefly with highs again testing the mid to upper 80`s west of the Cascades by Friday. A short wave or perhaps another deeper wave will likely move into the Pacific Northwest by sometime this upcoming weekend. This will result in a 10 to 20 percent chance of precipitation for most of Sunday and perhaps a few showers in the Cascades Saturday evening. -Smith && .AVIATION...26/06Z TAFs...Under weak high pressure, VFR weather for most terminals is expected through the TAF period. Guidance shows the potential for patchy areas of LIFR/IFR conditions to develop later tonight along the coast north of Cape Blanco into the Coquille Basin as well as in the Umpqua Basin. Confidence is low on whether this would impact terminals at Roseburg and North Bend. Winds may be easterly enough tonight to keep the lower ceilings away from North Bend. However, if winds turn southeast enough and there is patchy fog in the Coquille Basin, these winds could temporarily lower conditions at North Bend late tonight. Any lower conditions that develop are expected to improve to VFR for all areas by late Sunday morning. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday, May 26, 2024...The Small Craft Advisory has come down this morning, and no hazards are currently in effect. Aside from some locally gusty winds nearshore south of Cape Blanco, high pressure will maintain benign marine conditions thereafter through Tuesday. Look for increasing north winds and seas on Wednesday and Thursday. -BR-y/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$