465
FXUS66 KMFR 281804
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1104 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. MVFR
ceilings are likely to persist from about Cape Blanco north,
including North Bend through the TAF period. Although there ceilings
could briefly improve to VFR towards 0z, but confidence is not high
enough to include it in the TAF. The south coast should remain VFR
through the TAF period.

Inland, west of the Cascades, Ceilings are expected to remain VFR
through the TAF period. It could be a close call at Roseburg towards
12z, with ceilings getting close to 3000 feet. Winds will increase
during the day, with  gusts up to 25 kts possible at Medford between
21z and 3z.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. The main concern is moderate to occasionally strong winds
with peak gusts possibly exceeding 30 kts at Klamath Falls. The
other concern is isolated thunderstorms over Lake, Modoc, and
eastern Siskiyou counties late this afternoon and evening. However,
they are not expected at Klamath Falls. -Petrucelli

&&

...Updated Marine Section...


.MARINE (Updated at 8:45 AM)...A weak swell and light wind speeds
will lead to relatively calm conditions over the waters today. By
tomorrow, a thermal trough will strengthen and gale force winds
are possible by late afternoon/early evening. Come Thursday, we
will likely see the strongest wind speeds over the waters for the
week with gale force winds likely. The probability for reaching
at least gale force winds on Thursday is around 50-95% south of
Cape Blanco. The probability is highest across our southern waters
(85-95%) on Thursday where gale force winds are most likely. We
are anticipating relatively calmer seas by the weekend and into
early next week as the thermal trough starts to break down on
Friday.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024/

..Updated AVIATION discussion...

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some lower stratus
along the coast and in the Coquille Valley and entering the Umpqua
basin. Additionally, higher clouds associated with a frontal
boundary remain offshore but are starting to fill in inland. There
were a few thunderstorms yesterday east of the Cascades, and the
area remains relatively moist. Additional showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible once again. Showers and storms are
expected mainly across portions of the East Side, with a few
showers occurring offshore and along northern Coos and Douglas
Counties. However, most precipitation will be occurring north of
our area.

This front will push through southern Oregon tonight and it will
also bring breezy west winds this afternoon and evening.
Overnight, the lingering showers will dissipate. Temperatures
today and Wednesday will be a bit cooler as well, but frost and
freeze concerns are not expected.

Conditions will dry out Wednesday into Saturday as a ridge of
high pressure returns. This will help warm us up and dry us out
once again.

Then on Sunday into Monday, the next front will approach the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. This front will have
the potential to bring additional light precipitation to the area
with showers in the forecast. Ensembles have large variations
about the timing and strength of the front, but will go with the
national blend of models for now. This front may bring
temperatures back toward normal; but these details are likely to
emerge as we get closer to that time frame. -Schaaf




&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Friday afternoon for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$