209
FNUS76 KMFR 220044
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Scott Bar Mountain Unit 3C...USFS
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
544 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 PDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...An upper level disturbance will move into NE Oregon
Wednesday. While this will be too far from the burn site to
result in any precipitation chances, it will lead to gusty
northwest winds (especially over ridges) Wednesday increasing in
the early morning, peaking around 4-5 PM, the gradually decreasing
into the late evening. As the disturbance moves eastwards,
Thursday and Friday will see warmer temperatures, continued dry
weather, and generally light winds with afternoon breezes. Another
disturbance will move north of the burn site early Saturday, once
again likely dry but bringing an increase in winds. High pressure
builds in Sunday and Monday with conditions average for this time
of year.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (mostly high clouds,
some cumulus over higher terrain forming in the
late afternoon).
Max temperature.....59-62 degrees.
Min humidity........27-30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 1-2 mph in the morning increasing
after 10 AM into the late afternoon up to 3-5 mph
with gusts to 8-9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5-8 mph in the morning
increasing to 8-11 mph with gusts to 18-21 mph.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 16 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....36-39 degrees.
Max humidity........52 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 4-5 mph with gusts to 8-9 mph in the
early evening dropping off after 8-9 PM to 1-2 mph
overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8-11 mph with gusts to 18-21 mph in
the evening becoming light 2-3 mph.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny, clear.
Max temperature.....65-69 degrees.
Min humidity........22-25 percent.
Eye level winds.....Variable 1-2 mph in the morning becoming north
2-3 mph in the afternoon, then shifting NE 1-2
mph in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable 1-2 mph becoming north 5-6 mph in the
                    afternoon, then shifting NE 3-5 mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Light
winds generally out of the NW. RH trending upwards. No
precipitation.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 60. Light winds
in the morning followed by breeziness in the afternoon, generally
out of the NW. RH trending upwards slightly. No precipitation.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Light
winds in the morning followed by mild breeziness in the
afternoon, generally out of the NW. RH trending downwards
slightly. No precipitation.

$$
Forecaster...PRICE
Requested by...Paul Buchter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414867.0/MFR
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL paul.buchter@usda.gov