255
FXUS62 KMHX 200830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
430 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of
the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal
system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 400 AM Monday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to
our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east.
Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again
overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how
far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck
currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which
is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low
stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after
sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit
longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon.

Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the
moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through
the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this
morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient
before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening.

Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once
again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s
inland where there are more breaks in the clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into
early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and
decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy
fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am
Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a
quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for
OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM Mon...High pressure builds in from the north for
the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from
the west at the end of the week bringing chances for unsettled
weather.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday,
along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in
the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise
through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may
reach or exceed 90 by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the
pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the
form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive
by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region
with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of
disagreement this far out, so pops capped 30% on Fri, and
perhaps slightly better chances Sat at 40%. Followed closer to
convective climatology this far out, and kept thunder mainly in
the afternoon to evening time periods, with very small shower
chances overnight through the noon period. Hottest day of the
week appears Fri, where highs around 90 or even a tick higher
are possible interior, with 70s to around 80 beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR
ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and
KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with
a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are
too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95.
More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX
early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how
far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC
deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will
persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage
in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in
TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat
possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the
potential for IFR visibilities.


LONG TERM /Tue through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions are expected through
much of the week. Exception may be early Tue, when MVFR or lower
stratus and/or fog possible in the morning hours with light
onshore flow. Next chance of thundershowers not until Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Riding over central ENC and the coastal
plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly
breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25
kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for
Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of
Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the
potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set
to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this
afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still
largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts
not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts
prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters
currently without a hazard.


LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Mon...Good boating cond this week as high pres
dominates. Nerly breezes on Tue become srly on Wed as high pres
eases offshore. Winds will remain light (5-15 kt) through the
end of the week, with seas remaining below 5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ