Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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984 FXUS62 KMHX 311402 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1002 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead today and through the weekend. High pressure then shifts offshore early next week with temps returning to around normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM Fri...Meteorological spring is closing out on a clear and dry note as sprawling high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley shifts towards the Carolinas this morning. Main changes to the prior forecast were removing coastal PoPs as triggering surface boundary shifts well out into the open Atlantic, and to lower Tds a few degrees through the day, closer to HRRR as majority of guidance has a history of overestimating minimum Tds during clear sky/northerly flow patterns. Highs today in the mid to upper 70s with a few Td readings in the upper 30s possible across the inner coastal plain. Some diurnal strato cu may develop, esp Eern zones, and help keep temps down just a touch. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 0645 Friday...Ridging builds through the entire column in the wake of the departing trough aloft leading to a calm, cool, and clear night. Expecting strong radiational cooling with clear skies and the SFC high almost directly overhead during the overnight hours. Lows lower 50s most, upper 50s to low 60s beaches. Chance the typical cold spots inland see lows in the 40s tomorrow morning. We will be flirting with record lows tonight. Not currently explicitly forecasting record breaking lows, but the possibility is on the table. See CLIMATE section below for record Lows for 01JUN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Fri...Cool high pressure remains over the area through the weekend with below normal temperatures and low humidity expected. Then, the high will slide offshore early next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal. Saturday and Sunday...It will be a fantastic start to June this weekend with low humidity and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will be more or less overhead Saturday, and then shift offshore Sunday. Another cool night expected Saturday night due to strong radiational cooling, and lows could reach the upper 50s to low 60s inland. Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build offshore early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances for rain (~30%) Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper level impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each day, and lows mostly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 0100 Friday...VFR flight cats through the period. Showers and a tstorm or two are possible east of the TAF sites late tonight to early Fri, so have not included any shower mention at this time, but may have to watch for any development further W than currently anticipated with later forecasts. Some sct strato cu in the 5-6k ft range will impact the TAF sites through the period. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the long term as high pressure remains in place across the region. However, strong overnight cooling this weekend could result in the formation of patchy fog...bringing the threat of sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Fri/... As of 0345 Friday...Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2ft. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, highest over outer Central waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave traveling through the trough aloft passes over area waters early this morning leading to chance of showers and a storm or two working from NW to SE across the Pamlico Sound toward Ocracoke Island around sunrise. Nerly winds on Fri in the 15 kt range with some gusts in the lower 20s, but remaining below SCA levels with seas of 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Fri...Good boating conditions expected through the weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light and variable Saturday, with a light sea breeze eventually developing in the afternoon. Return flow develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 10-15 kts. Winds then briefly strengthen to 15-20 kts Sunday night before returning to SW 10-15 kts Monday. Winds become southerly at 5-10 kts on Tuesday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period. && .CLIMATE... Record Low temps for June 1, Saturday. LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 48/1966 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 50/1966 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 45/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 48/1984 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 42/1984 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 50/1966 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB CLIMATE...MHX