596
FXUS62 KMHX 040520
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the coast through midweek. A backdoor
front will move into the area on Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday morning. The weak front will lift back north
Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move through Friday, with cooler and drier conditions
expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Tue... Made some minor tweaks to the precip
forecast to account for current radar trends with some light
shower activity noted along our northeastern zones heading into
the Pamlico SOund and across our western zones as light shower
activity approaches both areas. Otherwise, minimal changes to
the rest of the forecast.

Prev Disc... Keeping an eye on another weak boundary drifting
south over the VA border with isolated thunder activity, but
upstream environment is likely too stabilized to support these
cells in our area.

Stepped down PoPs considerably from the prior update, now
showing more widespread dry conditions through mid-morning
Tuesday. Overnight lows range form around 70 along the coast to
mid 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...With surface high pressure over the
northeast US, a backdoor cold front will sag south into the area
Tuesday. This, along with the afternoon seabreeze, will serve
as the forcing mechanisms to support more shower and
thunderstorm activity. Similarly to today, coverage will likely
be isolated in the morning, become scattered by the afternoon,
and diminish after sunset. It`ll be quite toasty with highs
nearing 90 across the coastal plain with the beaches just
slightly cooler in the low-80s.

As for severe potential, the threat is low given weak effective
shear (20-25 kt) and forcing. Despite these limiting factors, 1000-
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE would still make it possible for some stronger
storms to develop with threats of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. A backdoor cold front moves
into Eastern NC Tuesday, likely stalling through Wednesday
morning, and providing a focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. Front lifts back to the north
Wednesday, with high pressure strengthening offshore. Increasing
southerly flow will bring a surge of moisture into the area
through late week with more unsettled conditions through
Thursday. A cold front will move through Friday, bringing drier
conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system
may impact the area early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
lift back north early Wednesday with cold front approaching from
the west and high pressure strengthening offshore. This will
allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to advect in from the west
ahead of a potent upper level trough and strong cold front.
Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely with a diurnal max
in coverage each afternoon, capped pops at high chance for now,
with greatest coverage likely Thursday afternoon and evening.
Weak shear will limit svr threat, though an isolated strong
storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be
possible. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as
highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it
will feel like 95-100 degrees out when factoring the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...Cold front looks to move through Friday,
though still some uncertainty with respect to timing. 00z
guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast
through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler
conditions across eastern NC. Another frontal system may impact
the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wed night/...
As of 120 AM Tue... Made little in the way of changes to the
forecast with predominantly VFR conditions expected through the
period. Fog threat still looks to be minimal at best (generally
less than 10%) for the rest of tonight with scattered high
clouds around the area. But, the threat is non zero. It would
likely be patchy nuisance ground fog if it did develop forming
between 09-12Z this morning before dissipating. Even if fog does
develop, it will cause minimal impact to operations.

As we get into this afternoon, typical summer time convective
pattern returns, with more westerly winds in the morning
backing to a southerly direction as the sea breeze advances
inland. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is likely
after 18z tomorrow along the seabreeze and along an incoming
backdoor cold front. Otherwise as we get into the evening hours
shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly wane in coverage
and intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday night/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Southwest winds at 10-15 kt will turn slightly
more westerly tomorrow morning and decrease to 5-10 kt. By tomorrow
afternoon, they`ll be back to the southwest at 10-15 kt. Waves will
be around 2 ft through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the period but most of the
activity will reside over the coastal plain and Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Good boating conditions expected through
Wednesday with light to moderate winds. The pressure gradient
will tighten Wednesday night into Thursday with SCA conditions
possible.

A backdoor front may push into the northern and central waters
Tuesday, then lift back north Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
front will likely bisect the coastal waters into Wed morning,
with winds north of the boundary E-SE 10 kt or less, while south
of the boundary winds expected to remain SSW 5-15 kt. SSW winds
will increase to 15-20 kt Wednesday night, becoming SW 15-25 kt
Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday, with
gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday,
then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/OJC