021
FXUS63 KMKX 271625 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1125 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening (roughly 40% chance). Wind gusts up to 45 mph and
  small hail are possible, but severe weather is not expected.

- Scattered showers & storms again Tuesday. Severe weather is
  unlikely in this activity.

- Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the
  end of the week. Sunday will be the next chance for
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1124 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Clouds associated with weak low pressure over the Great Lakes
are slowly moving out of southern WI. Gusty northwest winds with
gusts up to 30 mph are ongoing due to the tight pressure
gradient over the region. While areas west of Madison are
seeing sunshine, eastern areas are still under that cyclonic
flow and steeper low level lapse rates, so the clouds are
hanging on. Upstream, a robust shortwave is making its way into
southwest MN, but there is a weaker shortwave out ahead of it,
in eastern MN and central/eastern IA this morning. That weaker
wave is producing mainly showers, but there are a few storms in
IA.

We can expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms with both
of these shortwaves this afternoon and evening, with the better
chance for thunder west of Madison where they are seeing more
sunshine. The high dewpoints in place will keep our instability
(CAPE) down to around 500 j/kg or less (except 750 near the
WI/IL border), and shear will also be on the weak side.
Therefore, storms are not expected to be severe, although a
couple could produce winds up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Today through Tuesday night:

The surface low will continue to slide out of the area and into
the central Great Lakes as we dry out this morning. With the
troughing pattern we are in expect another few rounds of showers
and storms across the CWA, the first of which will come through
this afternoon/evening. A fairly strong shortwave will slide in
by this afternoon with enough mid level moisture to support
showers from the mid-afternoon through much of the evening. In
addition there will likely be some instability with this system
which should allow for some storms. While we cannot completely
rule out a stronger storm, in large part storms are expected to
remain weak given the lack of shear. Popcorn convection activity
from the late afternoon into the early evening will feature the
best chance for stronger storms, primarily for the western half
of the CWA. This is due to better lapse rates (~7C/km) and
instability (~1000J/kg) which could allow for a storm or two to
grow on the taller side. While chances for precip are mainly
30-40% this is due largely to the scattered nature as we expect
areas within the CWA will see precip from this system.

After midnight showers should be expected to dissipate leaving
at least a period of drier conditions into the morning hours.
There remains some uncertainty of the next shortwave/trough
coming through, primarily with respect to onset timing. However
models are largely in agreement that the region will see
precipitation, likely due to the strength of the system, though
still scattered (40-50% chances). This looks to bring scattered
shower activity from late this morning through at least part of
the evening hours, with the best storm chances during the
afternoon hours. With regard to storm chances, stronger storms
are not expected due to a lack of shear but we could see a
similar situation arise as Monday but instability will be less
overall. Precip will gradually dissipate into the evening as the
surface high begins nudging in as with the upper ridge.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

By midweek it appears for at least a short period we will
finally return to drier conditions with higher pressure sliding
in with ridging building in aloft. Friday and even Saturday has
trended drier with the latest model runs and the next system
continues to be delayed in its arrival. However Sunday still
appears likely to feature a system pushing in with still
uncertainty in timing. It will be the next system to watch over
the next few days as depending on timing this system could pose
some severe concerns with instability and better shear
associated with it.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1124 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Clouds bases have improved to 2000-3500 ft late this morning,
and areas west of Madison are clear. Look for scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Cloud bases in any
storms may be MVFR. Gusty winds and small hail are the only
threats.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Low pressure will slowly move across northern lower Michigan
and Lake Huron today. As the low moves into lower Michigan
breezy northwest winds will be expected for the remainder of the
day. These winds are expected reach thresholds for a Small
Craft Advisory and thus one is in effect from this morning
through the mid afternoon. West to northwest flow will persist
into mid week, with winds gradually weakening over time as high
pressure eventually builds into the region. The high will hold
strong into the early weekend with light to modest north winds
from Wednesday through at least Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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